Loading ...Bitcoin & Sir Farmer
I don’t trade Bitcoin but have followed with interest Sir Farmer’s recent posts on it. He correcetly identified the setup and timed it well, but thought it would have topped a little lower than this. I commented that the $30,000 area was where significant resistance would present itself. My take(FWIW) is if it reverses back below $30,000 that is the time to go short, if one is so inclined. My stop would be $30,500.
That 30,000 you mentioned was an excellent call Chartsmaster. I was intending to write about it in the next hour or so. Right after lunch. But you beat me too it so I can answer here instead. So was there anything in particular that led you to the 30k number? I am indeed looking for a short entry around this area. Plan is to sell in the next hour which will be between 5 and 6 am Central Time. Nothing fixed in stone yet but keeping a close watch on those hours. Anyway….well done. Hope you had a great day yesterday.
The chart is what led me to the $30,000 area. I think your instincts are correct in that it looks like the high so far today around $30,416 is the top. You can sell just above $30,000 or wait for confirmation of a break back below $30,000. That should bring in much more selling. Good luck.
One additional thought. While this short trade looks like a good trade, it probably isn’t THE trade. What I mean by that is I agree Bitcoin is likely to head down from here, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if after it bottoms(no call yet on where that might be) it has a new rally that could take it back up again before it heads to it’s ultimate destination.(like fiat, zero)
This week may be mostly consolidation of the top Chartsmaster. The weekly decline does not begin until next Monday. Indeed I have already tried my first short trade and been knocked out using a 100 point stop. Willing to try again soon but need more certainty its not going to bounce back and bite my arse. I am looking for an ABCD decline pattern to set the pattern up….then sell from the next high a little later in the day.
So for Bitcoin I use a 15 minute chart or I get lost in the details. Price moves too sharply for even a 5 minute chart. For my liking anyway. What I use is an indicator called “Bollinger Band Width” to inform me to trade or wait. Right now its flat as a pancake and tight as a drum. That makes this a terrible time to make an entry since the moves up and down are just tiny little whipsaw action. Actually its been whipsawing already for the past 6 and a half hours and going pretty much nowhere. I only traded it out of boredom! Not a good strategy. It cost me a 100 point for nothing.
Sounds like you have mapped out a good plan.
I like my indicators. Try that Bollinger width yourself. Once you get used to the thing its pretty handy and can keep you out of danger. What we need is movement to make money. That will come as the bands begin to widen after an accumulation/distribution period of being very narrow.
Appreciate the info but I don’t do short term leveraged trading so I actually don’t want anything so finely tuned. I do equities and buy options. I base it on charts and include fundamental analysis so I don’t use stops because I often need to wait a bit to allow positions to work out.(they usually do)
They don’t when you trade 50 to one leverage! LOL Never!!! Hahahahahaha
But I wish they did. Stops are asolutely essential. Damage can be severe if you neglect them.
Truthfully, I would not trade without stops anymore. Learned my lesson the hard way.
Trades do not bounce back from losses often enough to make it worth the risk.
Better to just bite the bullet, take the loss and quit for the day if you are making mistakes.
I mean, just turn off the computer and walk away. There is always another trade tomorrow.
So no loss in doing nothing.