On 24 Feb 2022, Vlad Putin launched operation peace-for-Donetsk. Some people don’t like peace for Donbas go figure. Key to Donetsk being “livable”, returning evac’ed population, is Russian control of industrial city of Avdeevka, turned by Ukr into a new “fortress Konigsberg” and artillery pad. Typical WEEKLY Russian advance against Ukr positions at any main axis was not more than 1/4 km, or 1/2 to 1km if lucky. Today, thanks to softening of Ukr ferroconcrete industrial and custom positions with newly manufactured 1500kg precision glide bombs, MoD regular mixed units of Donetsk natives and “mainland” Russian draftees advanced up to 7km from N/NE, almost reaching or possibly even crossing beyond railroad leading into Avdeevka from N/NW. “This is it”, early innings of development of the Avdeevka Cauldron. All you annoying “How’s Donetsk?” folks, have your answer from me. You wanted a Russian offensive, u got it. Have a glass of wine tonight. All haters on wrong side of God & history, u know how this ends in the end. Like Adolf H., u are creating a “monster” that was NOT in the cards previously. Russian industry, new mobilized army with draftee “embed” training model is following sharp improvement curve of 1943-onward. And u all know I’ve not mentioned tactical picture (except Russian setbacks) since July, so u can assume, something’s up.

Glenn Deisin Washington Based War Analyst