Specualtive Trade
Speculative trade not an investment. For the very short term I see CS as a Buy today UNDER $2. The Swiss government and others cannot let them fail at this time. They are counterparties to huge derivative trades globably. When either another Mideast investor or someone else announces a 5-9% stake(the Saudi National Bank already has a 9+% stake) the stock should bounce to $3.50 to fill the gap. Exit there. Small position, high risk but worth a punt. PS the weakness of the bank is real but the crisis is being milked because tomorrow the ECB announces their rate decision. LaGarde already committed to a 50 basis point hike. The “crisis” with CS might force her to go 25 instead. Either way, I don’t believe they collapse at this time. Maybe in the future but a bounce looks likely first.
CM — what are your thoughts on short-dated call options (as a punt) — say April 21 expiry.
How much of a rebound would you guesstimate IF gov’t steps in and CS survives the weekend?
Only looking for the gaap fill to $3.50. I prefer options where you can get large point moves. Here with such a low priced stock that isn’t going to happen. Don’t even have to go to April but to me the better play here is the stock because only a point or so of upside.
In at the open@$1.76. IF it can reach the gap at $3.50 = 100%?
Bought April 2.50 calls. Up so far. It fills the gap at $3.50 I’m gonna retire hahaaaaaaaaaa