Loading ...Prechter’s forecast for Gold
Gold at $4000 in 2023? According to the managing director of a European investment firm, that’s the target, which would require more than a doubling of gold from its current price of $1832. Despite a 40-year high in consumer inflation, gold has languished below its all-time high at $2072.12, registered in August 2020. “A little bit of a recession” this year is cited as one of the reasons that gold will double its price due to slower central bank interest rate hikes. But as The Elliott Wave Theorist discussed in detail in a study from March 2008, gold tends to lag during recessions and has shown the “biggest gains, by far, while the economy was in expansion, not contraction.” While anything is possible, an economic contraction per se will not be bullish for gold prices.
Last month, EWFF showed the progression of Intermediate wave (2) in spot gold, which has taken the form of an expanded flat (see text, p.45). Wave C of (2) started at $1614.75 on September 28 and should be an impulse wave. The pattern appears to be late in development. Once complete, wave (3) down, our highest probability expectation, will lead to the largest decline since the March 2022 high.
The Alternate Count remains unchanged and indicates greater bullish potential. In this scenario, the September 28 low completes Intermediate wave (4), a correction that began at the August 2020 peak. Intermediate wave (5) is underway, with Minor wave 1 of (5) in its late stages. Minor wave 2 will be a partial retracement of wave 1 and lead to Minor waves 3, 4 and 5 to new all-time highs. A decline below the September low will eliminate the alternate. Silver’s pattern is not a clear as gold’s structure, but both metals are trending together more or less.
I feel like Harry Truman who said he wish he had a one armed economist.
Bob Prechter is still a thing ?
Ha
I hate these forecasts. Year after year someone says gold’s going to the moon, silver will go to $50 then $100. It means absolutely nothing. My forecast is gold at $2100 and silver at $30. Does it mean anything more or less than some guy who’s been around forever saying the same thing year after year and getting it wrong each time? It’s an unknown. Seems like we’re slowing moving down, just enough to chip away at all my gains, subtly, so I hold on until the cycle starts all over again. I think AI runs all this stuff where the big money using it puts the little guy through the ringer in a way he or she does not grasp until all is lost again.
‘I think AI runs all this stuff where the big money using it puts the little guy through the ringer in a way he or she does not grasp until all is lost again.’
I agree.
Ai is an enemy to Humanity not only ‘traders’. Possibly it started with HFT. Now we have quantum computers. It calculates to make everybody lose. Bank wins.
Those notations in the lower right corner, for those who aren’t familiar with EWI charting, signify an ALT count that a bottom may have been made for wave (4) at high degree, and a new highs are on the way eventually with wave 1 of (5) as the next imminent high.
My take is NEITHER of these two, simply because I favor a view that a larger correction for the dollar is ongoing, where we are just in the first leg down. If so then neither the most bullish nor the most bearish counts should materialize over coming months.
ATM, I have just another countertrend decline having started, across the board. Late in the month, we might see a bigger turn. I will be assuming a B wave bounce for the $ but not the end of its correction.