Precious Metals Technical Analysis – False Breakdowns
Friday morning in a comment, I laid out what I was looking for to see a bottom for the precious metals. While we got the reversal from the early morning lows that I was looking for, the session was positive but not totally convincing in the tepid rally in the second half of the trading session. However, a look at the gold and silver charts provides additional evidence that a bottom is likely in place. I have no doubt that silver has bottomed and that was confirmed by the week’s trading action and the relative strength it displayed. The gold chart does show some positive divergences despite making a new low. So while the big upside will likely wait until after the FED decision, (opportunity to get in before hand) I believe both metals will rally strongly after the decision. The divergence I referred to comes in the form of the MACD on the gold chart. Beginning with gold’s May low, followed by the July lower low that saw the price about $100 lower, the MACD, while confirming that drop was only slightly weaker than in May. The big change and divergence came on Friday, with gold again making a lower low while the MACD held not only above the July low but above the May low, as well. This is the same pattern that occurred for Silver just two weeks ago. Silver made a false breakdown with a new low on Sept. 1 and 2nd. It’s MACD at the time showed a massive divergence from it’s two previous bottoms, just as gold did this week with it’s new low. There are likely to be wild swings in the prices for both metals, especially if the stock market crashes soon, as I expect. They should both be significantly higher on New Year’s Day.