Loading ...The Crash Canary Is Close To A New Low
The stock market crash canary (TDG) has been stair stepping down over the last six weeks along with the rest of the stock market. It has rallied periodically so as to not fall all at once and is approaching it’s low from last December. Since earnings come out tomorrow morning before the open, I would not be surprised to see a one or two day short squeeze that causes a big bounce. After that, I expect a new low which does not bode well for the rest of the stock market. The bear continues to accelerate to the downside.
It is beginning to become an ugly chart.. but there are a lot of ugly charts.. Could you explain why you regard this as a canary?
In response to a previous request I commented that it isn’t anything scientific. I have found that (TDG) Transdigm just happens to be ahead of the stock market, by a few days usually. Over the decades I have found certain stocks lead, some are simultaneous with the market and others lag and or have a unique or uncorrelated relationship with the market. TDG has tended to have very big moves both up and down, before the market does as well. It isn’t anything specific to their industry or business just that some stocks are always the first to move and often telegraph what is next for the market. Over time you usually get different leaders. The original Teledyne which is no longer around(there is another company with Teledyne in it’s name that I don’t follow) worked in a similiar way and was ahead of the 1987 market crash.
It has made a new low. Now it is just a matter of when the selloff accelerates. I still think the earnings will be an excuse for a short squeeze but don’t expect it to last much past tomorrow or Wed. at the latest.