Loading ...Bottom In Favorable Set-Up
On Monday at 10AM I posted the bottom call for gold and silver with the statement that by the end of this week they will be higher and by month’s end even higher still. Good way to play is with MAG that has a favorable set
-up. Here under 15 provides excellent risk/reward profile. 
What’s that old saw about there are bold pilots and old pilots, but not any bold, old pilots? Same can be applied to investing of course. I admire your fortitude and yes indeed the $15 area has in the past typically been a decent area to buy MAG in (except Mar 2020 when it printed $4) But about being bullish this sector right now, I will be content to just try to scalp GDX when the opportunity presents itself. I know it’s easy to claim 10 down days in a row and RSI 29 for silver is a set-up for something, but I will just play a short term bounce IF IT COMES.
Here is what I see. A Feb-April rally fueled by inflation and war fears. That fuel source should be coming off the boil. In the mean time none of my proprietary indicators point towards a completed bottom. Furthermore if one goes back to the top in Aug 2020 every hard bullion bank raid led to a 4-6 month decline before a sustainable rally was able to take hold. I still have my eye on that GDX 26 gaps left open in the charts. Perhaps it gets filled in the second half of the year.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MAG&id=p09061825205&listNum=51
In the chart above MAG is firmly entrenched underneath a declining 30 W EMA with weekly stochastic in a solid down turn.
Like I posted at 10:43AM. Bottom in as of Monday at 10AM and MAG here UNDER 15 provides excellent risk reward profile. Nothing more needs to be said.
Chartmaster & Plunger — I appreciate the running commentary between you both and find your discussions to be extremely helpful when trying to understand the market flow. Thank you both!
Intelligent discourse seems rare in the world we now inhabit and yet it enables different ideas to be thrashed into workable solutions — your discussions are much appreciated!
Interesting read on the LME
https://www.usgoldbureau.com/news/london-metals-exchange-gold
Thanks for the read, but let me ask sincere question. Do you feel there is any of it one can believe? Wonder what’s really going on behind the scenes?
I read it more as a control the chaos and cover their ass move as we have seen with the nickel , it also rises the risk of more volatility as less players involved . If you go to your bank/coin dealers…. and they say they cannot get the metal for you, would most people say ‘I will wait and pay you whatever you wish and call me when it arrives”. I reckon most would turn and walk away.
Yes, it is just a matter of time before the COMEX follows suit. Thanks for the info.
Silver most likely isn’t going anywhere between now and October. At best it will be range bound. There is zero chance it breaks above $29 before then.
We should bounce here given the momentum indicators, but there is a chance we get some more weakness before a more significant bounce in the next 2 weeks.
Barring a Fed capitulation before then, which is possible, silver won’t break $30 until 2023.
CM. What is your current take on AEM? I was holding a long-term position since Kirkland. I cashed out before earnings. Would like to know your current thoughts on this one.
So far the other shoe hasn’t dropped on AEM and I could be totally wrong about that. It doesn’t matter. If I am wrong AEM will do well but I still don’t think it will outperform NEM. I don’t remember how long after the Accenture deal it took for the fraud to be discovered but it definitely was more than a few months, so I will reserve final judgement for now. Since you took profits there are so many good miners to redeploy into, why play with fire even if things work out fine?