Loading ...Howdy Doody Revisited
Last week I referenced the 50’s-60’s kid show since it was Takedown Tuesday for the metals. Today, not so much the metals, as most of the damage was done in the last few days leading up to today’s expiration of options on the futures contracts. However, it is Tuesday, which long before I became aware of the pattern of taking down the metals since Tuesday is the cutoff for the end of week COT reports, I have long known that Tuesday’s are usually “counter trend” days for the stock market. In usual stock market trading which is bullish most of the time, the stock market is more often down on Tuesdays, except in the rare bear markets when they usually have counter trend rallies. Since yesterday managed to reverse early losses and finish well in the green, it figured today would see a selloff. The magnitude is quite interesting and we may actually get enough capitulation that a two week rally could ensue. Don’t get too excited. If we do get a two week rally from here, it presents the likelihood if it plays out the way the charts are looking, like a final last gasp before all hell breaks loose to the downside.
Sir CM, for the SM, on the short term, I keep an eye on $VIX & $CPC, the Put/Call ratio. Jeff Clark has shown that when the $VIX price goes ABOVE the upper BB, AND THEN retreats below that level, the SM tends to have a short term rally thereafter. Prices ABOVE 1.2 on the $CPC signifies extreme Bearishness. TODAY, neither security is showing that the SM is ready for a short term reprieve/rally. You are probably aware of all of the above, but for other readers on the forum, I hope this helps. I’ll post both charts soon. Thanks for your posts.
Good info Sir ISarmina. At the time you posted maybe not bearish enough. As I said above I was looking for some real capitulation today. Maybe this was enough by the close or tomorrow at the open will get us to where we can get the two week rally I am looking for.