Where Is The Stock Market Headed – Apple Offers Some Clues
While the convenient reversal and rally from last Thursday’s morning lows, stopped just short of triggering an “official” bear market announcement. (We have discussed previously how 20% moves don’t necessarily determine bull and bear markets) I believe that soon it will become clear to all we are in a stock market bear even if the time elapsed has yet to reach the usual timeframe. Since AAPL has been one of the big leaders of the previous bull and represents the single largest company by market cap, it offers a way of following and seeing where in the cycle we are. Being the leader and strongest stock it was the last to top. It may or may not be the first to bottom. While a case can be made that when the bear runs it’s course(probably longer than most now believe) AAPL will still be a leader, if not the leader.(Usually leadership changes after a bear market. Most of the top stocks at the previous bull market highs in 2000 and 2007 did not lead in the following bull markets) The chart says AAPL has an appointment with the gap at 95 from early Aug. 2020.(Remember when I posted the same thing about TSLA for 900 and after that was reached eventually 800. Both have been reached and surpassed on the downside.) Whether AAPL goes any lower than that and how long it takes to get there, 95 is a good place to reevaluate how it’s chart and the overall market charts look at the time. That should give us clues as to what follows from there.
I would not be surprised if we hear of some type of ceasefire to allow negotiations to develop, just in time so a big one day rally in the stock market can occur on Tuesday in front of Sleepy Joe’s State of The Union speech. He will be quick to pat himself on the back for his “tough sanctions” that brought this about. Once Wednesday arrives markets will resume their trends, stocks down gold and silver up.
CM, I also guess that gap gets filled the next 30 days or so.