Loading ...Is Mr. Bear saying I’ll take over now?
I’ll be honest with you. If I had to draw out a pattern more bearish than this one I wouldn’t know how to do it. The H&S is of course the prominent feature, however todays action was in your face bearish. Ending with an infamous Gravestone Doji. The GD is the most bearish of all the shooting star candles. It’s message is the bulls ran it up all day then became exhausted and gave it up to the bears. This is all bad enough, but think about what’s been happening lately. Over the past month we see 3 major buy-the-dip attempts and the third just underwent exhaustion failure. I think the dippers just might be ready to stand aside for a while. That could mean to go get your helmet on!
Excellent Find Sir Plunger
I held my SQQQ today
fingers crossed.
Thank you, Sir Plunger. I hemmed and hawed most of the day about jumping on the Q’s, the last hour being determinative. I’ll sleep better after reading your post. Strangely enough, I usually sleep better after deciding against doing something!
Plunger, I remember Harry Truman saying – I wasn’t there, of course – that if ten problems were heading down the road toward you, you shouldn’t worry to much because at least nine of them would roll off into the ditch before they got to you. Doing nothing has always been my best move. I’m hit and miss when I do something.
Thoughts on gold, silver being taking to the wood shed with the general markets? (Are you going to put stops under the recent PM lows?)
Yes, I have stops in just above my cost basis.
One more day of upside today(Friday). Bear resumes on Monday. As far as gold and silver they led this leg down. Not going down with the stock market. They will be counter trend to the general stock market.
That’s all great, but presented as just opinion. What is the basis for saying this? What is the research, what is the evidence? As far as I can tell it’s based on hope. I myself have struggled with this issue. I have looked at both sides and I honestly don’t know. In previous hard market sell offs the gold stocks ultimately succumbed. Yes, they are more oversold now, but ultimately they are stocks.
Not hope. As I have recently posted and commented on other’s posts. In bear stock markets(there have been articles by others explaining) gold goes up. You are only relating to recent history when the stockmarket crashed, everything went down. That is because despite the crashes they were in bullish stock markets. As you yourself and I too have said we are now in a new bearish stock market. Gold runs counter to the stock market in bearish stock markets. One has to differentiate. It doesn’t aleays go down with stocks. We haven;t seen a real bearish stock market phase since this bull started in 2009.
I am hardly not aware that gold stocks run counter cyclical to the general stock market. I virtually wrote the book on this. It’s actually centered around the real price of gold. That is the real price of gold goes down in an economic expansion and goes up in an economic contraction. The gold stocks will track this trend over the long term. But the subject here is the short term. And over the short term the gold stocks have a proven history to get caught declining when the general stock market gets hit hard, like in a crash.. Back in the crash of 1987 the gold stocks held for the first day and everyone thought, Hey look here gold stocks are preserving our wealth. But come the second day they absolutely got obliterated. Now at that time the gold stocks had been in an uptrend so one could say they were vulnerable whereas now they have been compressed down so may already have seen their decline. But my work shows that the lows have not been put in yet, so I am not willing to state categorically that if the market crashed then gold stocks would not sell off hard, along with the stock market, at least for a short while.
1987 confirms my point. Despite it being a horrific decline it was still in a bull market cycle. Market went higher from there so it was no different than March 2020.
No 1987 does not prove your point. Not speaking from opinion here are the facts. Gold stocks in the 1987 SM crash:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=D&st=1987-02-01&en=1987-10-30&id=p58257361039&a=1036606356&listNum=247
I think you got that wrong. I said it proved my point because yes, gold stocks crashed just like in 2020 because the stock market was in a bull phase despite the 1987 crash. That proved my point. Whenstill in bullish stock markets everything goes down hard together. When in bearsish stock markets that don’t! As I said, the 1yr correction in gold and silver led this phase down. They have bottomed and turned, they are not going to trade with the general stock market anymore in this cycle.