Loading ...The gold bull…
It’s certainly within the realm of possibility that gold could correct all the way back to $1400-1500 or so before going up 10-fold.
In the late 1990s, palladium more than doubled off its low before making a 61.8% retracement. After that retracement was completed, it went up close to 10x in the span of 4 years.
It’s not what any of us want to see, but a truly dramatic rise (like palladium’s move 30 years ago) over a short span of time is probably going to have to be preceded by an enormous and prolonged shakeout.
Gold’s last bull market was beautifully trending (almost unbelievably so), probably because it was coming out of a 20 year bear market and no one believed in it.
This time is, frankly, different IMO. Lots of people are expecting gold to perform like it did during the last bull, but it’s in a completely different place now structurally. There are lots more people on board this time. So while it’s not what I want to see as my account will likely take a hit over the next 6 months, I think we have to brace ourselves for extremely erratic moves both down and up.
Who the heck knows.
I totally agree with what you have written. The final bottoming process is going to fool all of us, however coming out of it I suggest it will look something like we just witnessed in Uranium. It will be hard to get into it.
Sir Plunger,
In earlier posts this week, you mentioned staying on the sidelines in PM miners. I kind of agreed with that strategy, though I’m not totally on the sidelines. I am out of most senior PM miners, but still holding some juniors.
Today, you say, “it will be hard to get into it” … which means kind of chasing prices higher, as in FOMO.
Then, how do you plan to get in? Like you said, for silver you’ll start buying miners below USD 21 silver.
How about for Gold?
FOMO is not what I like. And I still believe in the PM bull rewarding me “sooner or later” hence holding many many quality juniors, at prices much lower than recent highs, and in many cases 90-95% lower than historical highs.
In Uranium, I took profits for the second time in my FCUUF position. Happy to scalp some gains, not waiting for somebody to call a top in Uranium … who knows if the top is already in …
Again, no easy answers.
Have a great weekend.
GL