Loading ...PM Stock bounce
A recap: I haven’t chimed in much because I don’t believe much has really changed beyond progression within the bear market in the gold stocks. Keep in mind the number one principle of investing… Align oneself with the primary trend. That primary trend has been down since August 2020. Since then gold stock movements have NOT been corrective in nature they have instead been engaged in a downward primary trend. Yes, that’s called a bear market. The major change over the past 2-3 months has been the shift in psychology. The bear market has transitioned beyond the point of recognition (POR). I identify that point occurring around the month of July.
Nothing has changed regarding my previous analysis over the past few months. I still see the market advancing into a Phase III and a capitulation event before the bear market is over.
All I can say today’s price action in the miners is diverging from the usual pattern with a bullish bias being exhibited. It might just be the algos are set to confuse and the bearish tone will resume. I have been selling SSRM a little at a time into the rally as new daily highs a reached in anticipation of buying it all back cheaper with a scalping profit. We’ll see.
Sir JSK,
My reply here in a parallel thread is in the same vein as your “selling SSRM a little at a time” statement.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=509064#comment-91036
Cheers and good luck,
GL
I’m alert to the potential for an extended $ decline, as noted previously.
UUP is having issues at the 50dma R, on its rebound move that looks notably weak.
The potential for another BMR for PMs may not be too far off now.
Regarding chances for a BMR. I don’t rate them high at this time. We see bounces now typically 2-4 days but they collapse of their own weight. Sentiment isn’t bearish enough to me (IMO) to spark a prolonged BMR of at least a months duration. I see it more likely that the market moves into a downside break within the next months vs a BMR.
Either way without more extreme negative sentiment I don’t regard these rallies worth trading. Instead I have been shorting individual stocks. Some of late have been LOGI, MRNA (just covered) PFE
I liken the PM sectors trading like what the Seinfeld’s soup nazi would say…”no summer rally for you”
My copy of Jeff’s SKI model has triggered a 16/20 buy today marking Friday as the low. The DSI for gold and silver was 12 on Fridays close.
Sir Noman,
I regularly read Jeff’s free public SKI articles on 321gold.com.
My comprehension of your statement is, that today’s rise marks the end of the run-down that Jeff mentioned in his free public update today.
“In addition to index signals, lows can be marked using USERX run patterns. The current run pattern is 1 (day) Up and 4 (days) Down. A run pattern low requires a strong and long run down. The ongoing run down has only averaged 1.35% down per day, so far. Let’s see how the run down ends via one daily rise.”
Jeff is admitting that this has been a “weak” run down.
Also today’s 1-day rise could be part of the BMR that Sir Plunger is correctly and consistently warning about.
Thoughts?
Thanks,
GL
I am sharing real time data which cost thousands of dollars. Spend it wisely.
Something is giving the miners a bullish bias today. It certainly doesn’t appear the price action of the metals.
Block trades are not significant today. It is lots of small trades like when a major house gives a weekend recco
Energy stocks looking good here with oil breaking above 70. FNV & WPM and breaking down today is not great for the PM’s. Also that guy from Hurst has been calling for a 18 month cycle bottom around Nov for gold. his call has been spot on so far! I’m hestitant to be long miners heading into Oct. Who the hell knows what these f’ing creep have planned for us deplorables this fall. Lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFXEnbRU-fs
Never say never, but I don’t agree with you. GDX has been range bound since April 2020. We are 1.5 years into that range. The 100 week bollinger bands are tightening up. I don’t know if we can expect a rocket shot just yet, but I think we will be north of the August 2020 highs within the next 6 months. (If we break below $30, it won’t be looking so good, I admit.) We may be stuck hovering above or just below the 100 WMA, but I am not expecting a test of the 200WMA at this point.
At the very least, even if you are correct, I am expecting a break higher this month to keep the bears honest. If that comes this week or the week of the FOMC I am not quite sure, but a countertrend move of significance is coming soon. Just my very biased 2 cents.