Loading ...PM market update
Not to beat a dead horse, but I can offer some new additional insights into this market. Investors who have hung on waiting for a turn up because on going bullish convictions are now being punished by Mr Bear. Again defense is the order of the day. It has become clear to me that the market passed some time ago the Point of Recognition (POR) of a bear market. It was somewhat of a morphing vs an inflection point. Recall this is a psychological phenomenon, not a price break phenomenon. We see now how peoples view of this market is now markedly different than 2 months ago before the June price smash. Now smashes occur without the cabal hardly even trying (like today).
Question now is are we in Phase III. We will see, I don’t know. My original thought is we need to see GDX 30 broken. But today we see relentless selling, it sure feels like capitulation type selling. But I still hold out that this could be a shake out prior to one more rally up before the catastrophic decline.
Just the messenger:
Thanks Sir Plunger…your timely post at the Rambus site( copied here) was most excellent.
Explains where we are and what’s going on .
Sure helped me get out of Dodge .
Many many thanks, Sir Plunger (Messenger #1) and Sir Fully (Messenger #2).
No intention of shooting any of you!
Sitting in cash is certainly an option, and even today I sit on more cash than my entire stock portfolio which is 80% or more PM shares.
The problem is this: Uncle Joe and Uncle Jim are hell bent on watering down my cash’s value. Every one talks about the possibility of gold confiscation a la 1933, but the cash that is getting watered down relentlessly, is my reason to gradually reduce my cash … may be 0.2% to 0.3% in a single cash ACH addition to my trading account. Can that be called timing it? Hardly so. I am just using a smallest portion of my cash to buy PM juniors on the cheap. Could I use my cash to chase tech stocks? How about chasing California real estate?
One simple principle: I cannot time my entry into PM juniors. EVER.
Over the years, I realized that timing in juniors is so so so tough, that it is better to just accumulate them via dollar cost averaging down. If I have 40-50-60 juniors, their “pattern of spurting up suddenly” is what has bailed out my portfolio. This has applied to over 50-60% of juniors I have bought over 5-7 years.
09/01/2020 12:58:02 Bought 850 MYAGF @ 1.87 -1,596.45 6.95
MYAGF AYA GOLD & SILVER INC
Units 695
Cost 1,305.33
Proceeds 5,525.08
Gain 4,219.75
Avg. Gain %age 323.27
08/17/2021 12:06:29 Sold 55 MYAGF @ 9.29 510.93 0.00 0.02
08/17/2021 12:06:29 Sold 100 MYAGF @ 9.2998 923.02 6.95 0.01
08/12/2021 15:43:57 Sold 105 MYAGF @ 9.041 942.35 6.95 0.01
07/06/2021 15:41:44 Sold 65 MYAGF @ 8.4 539.04 6.95 0.01
07/02/2021 15:34:04 Sold 100 MYAGF @ 8.06 805.99 0.00 0.01
07/02/2021 15:34:04 Sold 35 MYAGF @ 8.064 275.27 6.95 0.02
06/25/2021 15:23:33 Sold 100 MYAGF @ 6.83 676.04 6.95 0.01
06/23/2021 13:54:31 Sold 135 MYAGF @ 6.366 852.44 6.95 0.02
Sell.FIFO 135 09/01/20 253.55 06/23/21 852.44 598.89 236.20
Sell.FIFO 100 09/01/20 187.82 06/25/21 676.04 488.22 259.94
Sell.FIFO 35 09/01/20 65.74 07/02/21 275.27 209.53 318.73
Sell.FIFO 100 09/01/20 187.82 07/02/21 805.99 618.17 329.13
Sell.FIFO 65 09/01/20 122.08 07/06/21 539.04 416.96 341.55
Sell.FIFO 105 09/01/20 197.21 08/12/21 942.35 745.14 377.84
Sell.FIFO 100 09/01/20 187.81 08/17/21 923.02 735.21 391.46
Sell.FIFO 55 09/01/20 103.30 08/17/21 510.93 407.63 394.61
GL
I don’t like the looks of this. Bulls have gone silent, no more hostile or militant responses to the bearish analysis I have presented. Shows that we are past the POR. Now with GLD showing a nice rally with no response by the gold stocks, this has the potential to open up the trap door. Originally I felt it had a decent chance to put in a 2-3 week muted rally. But today’s action feels like Phase III action
Talk about bear market action:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NGD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p04706167152&listNum=239&a=1011666835
and one of my past potential favorites:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USAS&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p35560272630&listNum=239&a=1011670402
NGD could be a potential play(if ya got the balls) to catch the bounce from a deeply oversold position.
Ok. So what you suggests right now for USAS since I bought them even because of your past suggestion on this site and still have and I’m losing lots of money…should I buy and should I hold it?
I am not trying to be cute, but the proper procedure would have been to put in a stop loss. I sold mine a while back, one can’t get all of these development plays right and need to ALWAYS have an exit strategy. I know that’s tough love, but it’s the best we can do.
Yes but right now what you would do if you would still have them, would you sold and buy something else or hold them?
I have been wrong not to put a stop loss for sure but I don’t like a lot to trade but with this kind (read CRAP) of stocks should be mandatory to do.
I can’t tell you how to manage your portfolio. I suggest calling the management and having a discussion then making your decision.
Sir Mamare,
I just absolutely loved the blunt honesty of Sir Plunger’s reply !!!
Eventually, you have to determine what is best for you!
To trade all in and out!
Or, to take partial profits!
Just like there should be no FOMO in a sharply rising market, there should be no remorse for not having some some or all at the recent tops! The primary trend for PMs is still up.
And please watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSQGRt0161k
GL
Pressed enter too fast … lol … meant to write …
Just like there should be no FOMO in a sharply rising market, there should be no remorse for not having taken some or all profits at the recent tops!
(or)
Miners are in the midst of a dust storm….DUST and JDST
There’s that shitbird GORO taking a bath too. Glad to be in cash here.
I remember feeling bad because I missed the big run up after it hit $4.00.
“shake out prior to one more rally up before the catastrophic decline.”
Someone asked the other day, if we were nearing More Bear or Next Rally in Bull.
I said neither. And basically laid out your quote. Next BMR is nearing (for much of Q4 maybe), THEN THE PLUNGE.