In bull markets, surprises are more likely to be to the upside and the opposite is true in bear markets(more likely on the downside). My recent short term target for gold has been the area around the 200 day mvg. avg. 1855 or so. Since we actually corrected from a bit lower than that, the chances of an upward surprise are enhanced.  It is quite possible that when gold rallies up to that area, it breaks thru and just keeps on going higher. That would be a nice surprise but not so surprising after all, considering we are in a bull market.