Goldtent TA Paradise

JORDAN ( THE DAILY GOLD)

1. Plunger says:

   March 10, 2021 - 10:25 am at 10:25 am

   As a discussion item I’ll offer a slightly different interpretation from Jordan’s. I think his is a pretty decent one, especially his video. Having the guts to offer the possibility that this “correction” could last into mid 2022. Not many gold types are able to be objective enough to propose such things. Good job Jordan. My view is mainly driven by seeing the market through a model. Chiefly that once a decline gets into it’s 8th month it’s time to seriously start considering that the decline is NOT just a correction, but in fact a bear market. That is what I believe we are in the midst of. The timing of all this seems to support this view more and more.

   Chiefly the downside compression in the gold stocks and the depressed sentiment that we have witnessed over the past 2-3 weeks. This points towards either the end of a deep correction or the beginning of a bear market rally (BMR) within the confines of a cyclical bear market. I suspect it is the later.

   This bounce is in my view a tradable bounce that is a typical secondary reaction in a bear market. These typically last 6-10 weeks. By the end of it the psychology will be reversed. The dark sentiment will be gone and it will seem the bull is back. That will be the time sell and get back defensive.

   • Silverhawk says:

     March 10, 2021 - 12:02 pm at 12:02 pm

     Plunger-
     Someone posted this video last month. Hurst Cycle guy…Saying exactly what you are thinking. Long term top in gold was achieved with a bear market upon us for a few years. Check it out.
     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jykCrf61LOU

     • Plunger says:

       March 10, 2021 - 2:30 pm at 2:30 pm

       I watched it. He is calling for a bottom in gold (intermediate) in September. We get a rally in between. Sounds in the ballpark.

       • Silverhawk says:

         March 10, 2021 - 3:53 pm at 3:53 pm

         yes, and then a sideway grind down into 2023 before a lift off.

   • Nautilus says:

     March 10, 2021 - 1:04 pm at 1:04 pm

     I hate to admit it but I agree. This is certainly not like any of the corrections in the prior bull market, which whole deep, were quick and never violated making higher highs and higher lows. The one exception being the 2008-09 plunge.

     That being said, silver still looks outstanding. And while I think getting above $30 will be difficult until later in the year, so long as price stays above the 50 WMA, I am firmly in the bull camp. It’s quite possible that price is squeezed between $30 and the rising 50 WMA, which could have us breaking out later in 2021. If silver broke below $21, I would at that point seriously question the new bull.

     Also, I am not going to rule out the Fed instituting YCC soon, which could turn things around quickly. I don’t think it is likely any time soon, but it’s not out of the question by any means IMO.

     • Plunger says:

       March 10, 2021 - 1:58 pm at 1:58 pm

       All true and agree. But let me throw this comment out there. And I am a super bull on the silver sector, totally in the silver short squeeze camp. But I have to wonder with all the silver squeeze media/hype out there silver was unable to press to a new high. It’s becoming problematic.

     • KenS says:

       March 10, 2021 - 1:58 pm at 1:58 pm

       Big picture though, is this not a great looking handle to the 2012-2020 cup?

       • Plunger says:

         March 10, 2021 - 2:19 pm at 2:19 pm

         Of course, it’s just incredible. But the bull’s intent is to throw us off first before it makes i’s move.

2. KenS says:

   March 10, 2021 - 10:57 am at 10:57 am

   Thanks Plunger. Good info.

3. pedro_deleon says:

   March 10, 2021 - 4:45 pm at 4:45 pm

   “or the beginning of a bear market rally (BMR) within the confines of a cyclical bear market. I suspect it is the later.”

   Slightly different take, but in sympathy with the general tone here.
   Notwithstanding the new highs we made for gold (not silver) last year, we have been in an “Elliott” CORRECTION since 2011. (Cycle degree ABC)
   (New highs DO NOT RULE THAT OUT in EW terms …. B wave bounces in ABC down can do that.)
   This was mapped out in my 2015 keeper, eventually expecting the bounce out of the 2015 lows to top out, and lead to a C wave down. So is this 1 of C down?
   VERY HARD in EW terms to draw that conclusion. It should be impulsive but its not.
   Could it be 1ED of C down? That’s EW lingo for a LARGE (ending diagonal) wedge, where all five waves within C are “threes” … abc’s. That COULD be the answer. And makes for a nice DECEPTIVE pattern, that kept people guessing off the highs. IF this is correct, then 1ED would still have to travel quite some distance.

   The other half of this puzzle is rates. Has the long bond topped in price?
   I think that ties in with … have crude prices bottomed?
   I would say -$40 bbl last year likely marked the lows.
   Crude up, rates up, gold down … the puzzle pieces when they fit are multi dimensional.