Loading ...From Piece By Chris Powell
Unfortunately few market analysts will pose or even acknowledge questions of government intervention, even though, especially with the gold market, government intervention increasingly is a primary determinant of prices. That’s why no analysis that fails to acknowledge or question this intervention is worth much.
Which government?
He was discussing UK govt. but many intervene in different ways and to more or lesser degrees.
To what end?
Supress prices to hide currency debasement. ie true levels of inflation.
The price of groceries is proof enough of currency debasement. That would be more apparent to people than the price of gold. Plus, gold pretty much doubled before the consolidation. Even for government folks, that’s poor performance. The Chinese are big gold savers. Is the CCP in on this intervention?
You missed the point. If you think groceries proove debasement (they do) just think how much more it would actually show up in gov’t and non govt. stats if gold wasn’t suppressed. I am sure the Chinese Central Bank does so when it is in their interest just like BOE, FED, SNB ECB and others.
Government stats are made from whole cloth. That would be the case even if we had gold backed currency. It’s irrelevant. Is there a person alive that doesn’t know that his currency is worth somewhat less year after year? If government is trying to hide that fact they are doing a poor job of it.
“That’s why no analysis that fails to acknowledge or question this intervention is worth much.”
#1 You play the hand you’re dealt.
#2 Its less the government than the central banks, driving market fundamentals. And central banks are mostly owned by the banks. Installed by them, for their own benefit.
#3 Prices are ALWAYS set at the margin. So its incremental transactions that set prices, not the elephants looming in the corners.
#4 The math will always tell you what’s been going on. That’s the tape. Trade it.
#5 Anyone fixated on government manipulation narratives has no business trading, never mind trying to counsel others.
#6 On a larger scale, the real analysis comes from gauging market psychology, not from the motives of bullies that step into the ring now and then. And math can gauge that psychology.
#7 PS — everything is fractal. Your math has to be GOOD. But you don’t need a 75% win rate. You have to take losses QUICKLY. Meaning, toss your convictions when you are PROVEN wrong.
Mostly wrong rest just your opinion. #2 The only central bank not owned by govt is the FED. #3 Incremental prices ARE set at the margin. By the paper contracts on the COMEX. You assume everyone is a trader.If you are not and not using margin you don’t need to take quick loses. Because the long term fundamentals will always play out in the end you can wait it out. #5 Not fixated on manipulation but to deny it exists is as foolish as believing in Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth fairy. #6 Psycology is interesting and although like all other elements it is only one of many, the charts are what counts, nothing else. And again clueless because: “That’s why no analysis that fails to acknowledge or question this intervention is worth much.”
I don’t acknowledge intervention. You say it’s to hide currency debasement, but that debasement is obvious to all. There is no need to intervene in the gold market to deny the obvious. As this argument is fundamental, we must know the governments true purpose, if we are to accept that intervention exists. It surely can’t be to hide currency debasement because that can’t be hidden. What other reason would they have?
Very little in life is “black and white”. Most things are matters of degree. When all currencies used to be backed by gold, intervention may have been just about keeping your currency from getting too far out of alignment with other nations currencies affecting trade imbalances. Once currencies were removed from gold backing the need to intervene became greater. With the exception of the US FED, the other central banks are basically owned, controlled and operated in line with those countries, economic and political objectives. In the US the FED being privately owned by the banks intervenes to profit those owners. That’s why many of those banks intervene to manipulate gold and silver to profit while being shielded by the US govt from any real penalties(fines occasionally to look like they are being regulated). This allows large banks like JP Morgan and some others to make obscene profits from their manipulation while helping the govt. by lowering the barometer that measures real inflation (price of gold)from showing it’s real level of the amount of inflation that would otherwise show up. Of course the public knows prices rise over time. But most who aren’t actively involved in investing or watching the markets every day, like we do, don’t think inflation is that bad. They are bombarded by the media talking up disinflation and the FED trying to increase it to 2% while it has always been over 2% and is now starting to accelerate to much higher levels.
Too easy, CM. Lots of things are black and white When currencies are backed by gold, they can change the price of gold to manipulate the currency. Witness Roosevelt’s confiscation of gold and almost doubling of it’s value to devalue the American currency. Every country messes with it’s currency for it’s own reasons. That will always be true. Nothing can prevent it except the real world problems they create for themselves – inflation etc… As well, nothing can prevent bankers from finding ways to make money. No doubt they break laws and circumvent rules while shielding themselves from consequences. That’s garden variety corruption and separate from the discussion of gold backed money. If gold prevented a government from messing with it’s money, why was Roosevelt successful and why was Nixon able to disregard it completely? Something either works or it doesn’t. It’s black and white!
If government/central bank intervention is a given, why not just ride their coattails? Do they work together, or are some manipulating up while others are manipulating down? I find it hard to believe that China’s goals are the same as the USG.
Who said they were? Don’t know about you but I haven’t seen anyone of them putting out press releases telling us what they are doing in the markets?
Don’t see what is black or white? What works or doesn’t? What specifically worked for FDR and Nixon? Totally nonsensical tangents. Either you believe or don’t believe there is intervention and manipulation. Don’t take my word for it. Numerous anaysts a lot more expert on the subject then you or I have documented it over decades. I will end my participation in this tedious thread by paraphrasing an applicable quote. There are two ways for people to fool themselves. They can choose to believe that which is false or they can choose to not believe that which is true.
“Either you believe or don’t believe”…and so it goes. Your analysis is faith based. You point to other “more expert” opinions to verify your belief. Well, if that’s all you have, forgive me for taking your analysis with a grain of salt. As to your final point and your dismissive attitude, believe whatever you want. People believe all kinds of foolish things, and, no doubt, they are sure they are right.
You have avoided dealing with all of my points, thereby exposing the emptiness of your’s. Rant on CM, but be advised that unsophisticated or new investors might take you seriously, causing them to loose precious funds.
Total garbage addressed what few points were actually relevant. Stop trolling me (like someone else) and make your own points. Who are you to speak for others. I have helped anyone new or otherwise and answered any questions they have ever asked me. No one appointed you the guardain for this site so keep your worthless opinions to yourself.
I believe my work here is done.