I’m glad to hear that people find the information in the papers I wrote to be useful.

As for the information on regional banks. I honestly have no unique insight other than the cycle work I’ve done. I have zero interaction with the typical banking parts of the regional banking industry. My views on wanting to be invested in that sector for myself is my rationale that lending will go up as the real estate cycle goes wild into the peak and interest rates will typically climb as commodities go higher (both of which we are seeing so far since the March 2020 low). Higher interest rates let the banks make more money on each loan. The reason I am more in favor of regional vs the mega banks is that I would think that regionals would get more of their income from lending whereas the mega banks get a lot of income from trading. But if you look at the charts, both KRX and BKX are breaking out of massive triangle consolidations and seem to be moving pretty much in lockstep.

As for the demographics driving the housing market for the next few years. Research has shown throughout history that family formation typically starts around age 32…the Millennial generation are hitting that age group in large numbers beginning last year and this year. Then they continue hitting that age over the next 5 years before their numbers start to trail off. Here’s a chart showing the number of US citizens by age and the year they were born. This chart was produced in 2015, so add 6 years to it and you can see that the hump in the middle of the Millennial generation is beginning to approach that magical 32-34 age whereas first time homebuyers get active.

Hopefully this info helps!