IBM
I have posted about IBM a few times before. Once again, after it’s decline on another revenue miss, it is in an attractive Buy zone. The company is being transformed and will actually be splitting into two parts later this year. They are slowly remaking the company and although it won’t be the growth juggernaut it was many decades ago, it is going to provide very nice total returns going forward. Under 120, the combined yield of 5.5%(dividend increases over 25 years) with price appreciation over time, provides a stable, income generating asset to include in a conservative portfolio. I expect a little sideways trading between 117-121 before the stock recovers. Don’t wait too long. The next time they raise the dividend or increase share buybacks could lead to an institutional rush leading to 140-150.
IBM.. Excuse me as I throw up:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBM&id=p13658763003&listNum=43
Powerful slices down through ALL significant moving averages are a message to stand aside and see if a base can be built, if not it’s something to avoid and let someone else take the blow.
That’s true if short term trading. Look at your chart again. This area between 117-121 is start of the right shoulder for inverse H&S. As I stated in my post, they will be raising the dividend again, in April probably, any increased buybacks and any positive earnings news in the future will lead to 15-20% upside added to the yield. Not for everyone but someone looking for stable yield and total return could do worse.
OK this is not any form of a personal attack, instead see it as a debate of between investment approaches. I see and understand all of what you say. However my view (gained from years of getting sharp sticks in the eye) is that price action rules. It trumps all forms of perceived fundamental analysis. I am just saying that one must respect the message delivered by price action above all others. A gap down through all significant moving averages, in this case 50,150,200 EMA is a powerful message that needs to be respected. If we head into a bear market (which is not indicated yet of course) price is not going to give a damn about any of these bullish fundamental possibilities, dividends, buybacks etc.
Just saying an ugly chart like this is sending a message. Until it can develop a base it demands one step aside.
I like both perspectives but I’m gonna have to go with plunger on the price action. Indeed, I think we have to see it form a nice big, solid base. Perhaps, Assuming there is a base, after the base is formed and it splits in the two companies things turn around, And at that point one buys.
That’s what makes markets. Again, you are both looking at it from a short term trading perspective. I understand and respect that. This is not for short term traders following the usual rules of T/A. This is for a yield investor looking to do better than 1% on most income alternatives. Yes you take an additional bit of risk but that’s why you get 5.5% a year. Even in bear markets there are always special situations that go up or sideways if they have a high enough yield that doesn’t disappear. Even during the last 4-5 years that IBM has underperformed the yield keeps rising and now rates are so low it becomes compelling if the company is turning around. It’s not for everyone but someone looking for stable income with some added total return will do fine over the next few years. That is my point.