Ballanger Rule
Quote from Michael Ballanger’s latest missive. “Only in the gold and silver markets does one sell “breakouts” and buy “breakdowns.” Why? Because they are rigged.” No truer words were ever written. In the market, if you are a technician and chartist, as almost everyone here is, you don’t buy breakdowns and sell breakouts. However, as he points out, because gold and silver are totally manipulated,(in the short term) you do. Fundamentals matter, in the long term, but technicals call the shots, short term. Two more relevant paragraphs from the same piece.
“Charts are beautiful things to behold, particularly for stocks and commodities, because they are like roadmaps that explain where you are and where you were, and if you delicately engage in the Art of Extrapolation (with a Ouija board and a pair of dice), you can often discern the next movement in the market and book profits.
In gold and silver, the bullion banks that act for the large Commercials also use charts, but they don’t just “use” charts, they deploy all manner of watercolors, oils and acrylics to create optics that will lure the masses into either bullish actions or bearish actions, all designed to create accelerated volumes into which to sell large synthetic positions of (alleged) gold and silver bullion. In other words, the Wall St. bullion banks are wizards at “painting the tape,” and that is why they are able to orchestrate “takedowns” with such violent mastery and malevolent outcome.”
Awoman to that!
He nailed it. Imo the way to play is to be a scalper, selling by cost averaging into the highs and buying back by cost averaging into lows.
That is definitely one way to go. I do buy the takedowns, and will occasionally take some off the table, like in early August, but I keep the bulk of my positions for the long term.
Good reason to dollar cost average into physical and call it a day. Right now, they are painting those large H&S & will get everyone to panic out if GDX breaks down. Bear trap brewing?
Some tend to over analyze and see H&S and cup and handles everywhere. Need to look at longer term charts. I completely ignore GDX. I only care about the actual metals and the individual stock charts.