Goldtent TA Paradise

Black Gold matters

1. Noman says:

   October 28, 2020 - 10:16 am at 10:16 am

   How are you playing this Tim?

2. Farmer says:

   October 28, 2020 - 10:30 am at 10:30 am

   I would be cautious here Tim. The lesser charts are saying crude oil will keep falling. But I get your idea. The problem I see is it makes an assumption the prior pattern will continue for another cycle into the future. But the prior pattern is an effective double top (on the bottom of a range). All West Texas Intermediate needs to do right here is drop below 36.52 and it stands to go impulsively bearish. Meaning in other words it will end up costing you if you anticipated a bounce higher and bought a long trade.

   My suggestion is to watch it play out first. At least for today. My own technical is quite bearish on crude futures.

   • Farmer says:

     October 28, 2020 - 10:33 am at 10:33 am

     Maybe just keep an eye on the neckline low of October 2nd. That’s easier to watch.

   • TimH says:

     October 28, 2020 - 10:45 am at 10:45 am

     Thanks. That sounds more sensible. I have often gotten tunnel vision in the past and missed the bigger money when the trend changed directions. But I’m just watching now. Much more exciting than gold.

     • Farmer says:

       October 28, 2020 - 11:02 am at 11:02 am

       Oh yeah, I agree. Gold had the royal snot kicked out of it today. I have a target down at 1800 if it gets any uglier. (And uglier looks very likely right now). So far this is not a garden variety correction in metals. It’s a wake up call that the dollar is being bought as a safe haven. Worries on deflation concerns. Worries about war. Worries about the future stability of the country and political system.

       Those are all things that will bid up dollars (and bonds) although the dollar was ready to move on a cyclical basis anyway. A biden victory could be an economy killer if they really push the green agenda and demolish the oil industry. So yes, it is interesting as a barometer of how the market feels about the political agenda. I mean, just watch crude oil futures if you want to get a sentiment reading on who the players think will win the election.

       Right now they are saying they fear Biden will take it.

       • BooBooMan says:

         October 28, 2020 - 1:25 pm at 1:25 pm

         Farmer,

         I agree with your bearish take for the short-term, but how can one worry about war (it’s always inflationary) and the stability of the country and yet seek a true “safe haven” in the fiat currency of said country, when it’s nothing more than a share of common stock in that country?

3. TimH says:

   October 28, 2020 - 10:38 am at 10:38 am

   I’m just watching. All my money’s in gold explorers. However… I’d buy now or when it breaks (up) through the first green resistance line. If goes up past the red upper downwards channel I think we’re safe for one more green resistance line where things previously got rough. Sell at that resistance and watch for a pullback and rebound. If it rebounds and hasn’t broken the channel buy back and sell off at 41 because although the top main channel is higher, it might hit that outside of stock market hours. Etfs are much less profitable but I haven’t figured out how to trade commodities on their own market practically otherwise. I lost half my money on oil a few years back and then made it all back. Sometimes oil is as crazy as gold but sometimes it’s a money pump. I was using UWTI the 3x leveraged etf which had about 1.5% decay per week.

   You have any ideas? I usually buy and sell too soon and expect the past to repeat itself. But sometimes there’s this little part of your brain that you need to listen to that defies logic and TA.