Loading ...Whipsaw Valley
I don’t know about you all but the trading part of my PM portfolio is getting killed .
I am day trading HGU and HGD and at EVERY turn I am on the wrong side !
Rambus always says the objective of a consolidation phase is to confuse and confound bears and bulls alike.
He is able to just hold on with an eye to the larger picture.
Wish I had the make up for that…but I don’t
sheesh
Me too. The goldbug in me wants to be bullish. I rationalize that we are doing a high level consolidation beneath a resistance line and building strength but we continue to break support. The volume is dwindling
away.
Getting killed is not the right expression for me. I am unchanged on the week. Bummed out but. During consolidations try trying the pattern of Opposite days. Every day will be an opposite to the previous. If you can catch the swing it makes it better.
As a public service I should post my trades and everyone will get rich taking the opposite.
I sold HMY above $6 in early September, which was a very large chunk of my taxable portfolio, and used the proceeds to buy a few silver and gold miners on September 23rd.
I’ve been saying this daily cycle was going to be lacklustre due to the need for more consolidation.
I don’t think we will make a lower low than September 24th, but we could come close at the next daily cycle low, which I am expecting the week of November 9.
Between then and now I still expect gold and miners to pop fairly convincingly and sucker even more longs before this daily cycle tops and rolls over into election day.
The Atlanta Fed just released the latest third qtr GDP projection at 35.2% which if unchanged will be officially posted like two or three days before the election.
Watching the USD today which is backtesting its 10ma on the Daily for support. A move up towards 96 (200wma on the Weekly) is still very possible.
https://surfcity.co/2020/10/16/surfs-up-351/
Note that we have had two GDXJ ten point moves since the early Aug top. The first started on aug 05 and ended on Aug 11. The second started on Sep 16 and ended on 24 Sep. Ten points each. Guessing here that we started another one on Oct 14 at 60 GDXJ and are headed to 50. Who knows?
EW is about PSYCHOLOGY … and triangles (ie, WHIPSAWS) are all about getting folks to the sidelines before the meaty move.
Which I believe will be down, ahead a violent reversal to the upside into year end (dollar down).
We’ve been in a (B wave) triangle since the first sharp decline three months ago.
Kudos to anyone trading it well. I sit them out.
Except they are wonderful for fine tuning your entry and exit signals via backtesting.