pure speculation, short term to IT to LT
SPX and PM complex … its all tied to $ ….
stall tomorrow (Tues)
DJT wins debate (or Biden loses it), $ up
risk off 2-3 days
Pelosi has to budge …. stimulus deal
Drives $ back down,
rest of w5 (from March lows) starts, into Nov.
Election unresolved, or market doesn’t like results.
Return to 2100.
That would be E of IV (expanding megaphone), that started in Sept 2018. (Rally is D, Covid drop was C)
Heli money or similar from 2100, and market moves toward new (final) highs over next few years.
This is a synthesis of my charts and EW (Dario Mofardin in particular; also Peter Temple) where confidence is pretty high through year end.
Straw man if you like. We shall see.
Been tossing around mostly political stuff (its important!) … thought I’d change it up.
Who pays these “ANAL(c)ysts” ???
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/democratic-sweep-victory-would-add-7-million-more-jobs-than-a-republican-one-analysis-finds-205257231.html
On a serious note, now, with Biden almost sure to lose, I’m thinking … are the broader markets going to crash even if Trump wins again? Yes, reelection win for Trump will be contested for days or even months … at that time the USDX could drop like a stone!
I don’t think its at all clear how the election will play out.
But I would turn to Armstrong for how and WHY it would play out in markets …
CAPITAL FLOWS
Tell me … will big money leave the US or come to the US? if Trump were to win?
Small biz growth was anemic after 2009, before Trump came in.
Capital goes to where its treated well.
Capital flows in would drive up $; the reverse otherwise.