Loading ...Lets Discuss Gold…A Meeting of the Goldminds
I know it’s late in the Cycle for gold to keep rising
I know cycles guys like the great Surf City expects a swift hard down to an Intermediate cycle
It sure would feel more comfortable to get that out of the way…wth calls for sub $1800 Gold and $20 Silver….it would be devastating for Goldbugs holding Mining Shares .
So How do we play this
Many are 100% on the sidelines waiting for the cycle bottom.
They may try to be calm and wait for the inevitable but were you all that calm Yesterday ?
In a Bull market…surprises are to the upside
An objective observer would look at the action…. (since that breathtaking rally from $1700 on June 7th until blasting straight through the old high from 9 years ago …$1920….to a new all time high just south of $2100)….and notice that in the 6 weeks since that high Gold has refused to drop and close below that high water mark.
We ALL thought that $1920 would offer some strong and persistent resistance but Gold sliced thru like it wasn’t there.
BUT it is There Now….Acting as support on many tests…
It’s been a classic retest of the previous high …a Monumental high that lasted a nanosecond back in 2011 and that stood for 9 long years.
So whats a bug to do…sit and wait for that support to fail ?
Or Hold on for dear life ?
What are You Doing ?
Stand By…we’ll need a poll
I am following Rambus and sitting tight.
You are absolutely correct about 1920 area. It could very well hold. The miners should be extremely profitable at that level so no reason to sell anything. It looks like the support is less so here for silver because it had such a huge run percentage wise. If this continues for another two months gold could hold and get boring and silver could work it’s way to 21-22.
Sitting tight per Rambus. Similar to biggus!
loaded. Kind of like June 22-24
Today is FOMC day, so we might all have a different take after today.
The bottom line is this for me–gold is stretched far above its LT moving averages and there are only three ways that can resolve–price, time or a combination of both. Even if gold made another leg up starting right now, I think it would be short lived and would come right back down to current levels after peaking.
Would I love to see gold go sideways in a $50 range until December? Yes, but the odds of that happening are probably near zero. We’ve got another month for a normal cycle to play out, and there is nothing that says $gold couldn’t stretch its intermediate cycle longer than 30 weeks.
Trying to guess how gold is going to get to $5000 or $10,000 is pretty much a mug’s game. I personally think cycles and sentiment are one of the best tools for guessing good buying and selling opportunities. I also think looking at price in relation to very long term moving averages (like the 12 month MA) is helpful in gauging when to buy and sell.