Goldtent TA Paradise

Views about Harmony

1. JSKauai says:

   August 21, 2020 - 3:09 pm at 3:09 pm

   Anything South African and I run the other way.

2. Karl says:

   August 21, 2020 - 3:29 pm at 3:29 pm

   I write as an outlier. How you use outliers depends on you.

   In fact, how you approach HMY in my opinion first of all depends on your circumstances. How much cash do you have for bills for expenses, including those beyond 1 or 2 standard deviation unexpected expenses? Governments will not accept HMY shares for taxes, nor will lawyers, nor will universities etc when they present their bills! Second, how much do you know about S Africa and Papua New Guinea, which I infer is where HMY has its other assets? If you know these places and feel they are good for your investment, great. Otherwise maybe not so good. I don’t know these countries well. I do not know the company at all any more, so I will not deal in other fundamentals. I think I last owned it around 1998(????)

   I have idiosyncratic ways of looking at charts, but I view the multi-year monthly charts as fine (perhaps slightly overbought), the 2-3 year charts as pretty reasonable. I haven’t made a careful study comparing it to other companies’ charts, but I am not sure that it stands out extraordinarily one way or another, but should go the way of gold, which should probably be up with lots of dramatics.

   My own quirky looks at daily charts on the short-short-short term do *not* reassure me, but I will spare you details. You I assume expect a reasonable possibility of further pullbacks. Look however at the patterns this summer. These count as head and shoulders or complex head and shoulders. I am not the world’s hugest fan of use of such patterns, but I don’t ignore them. Unless you plan to take some lumps and possibly lots of lumps before reaping (possible, hypothetical) great profits, you might look at this pattern and look several times.

   A year ago I would have mocked people who wrote here about gaps, and I think I did. I was wrong I believe. I look at them now. On a 1 yr daily chart I see one below 5 1/2 and even a smaller one before that before June below 4. Does it have to go even to the former? No. It could explode upwards even tomorrow. I would be wary with my own money however.

   For fun, if it were my own money, I would look at the charts in S African currency, but I’m not going to.

   My circumstances are not yours. I personally like the big royalty companies RGLD, WPM, FNV, also GOLD, NEM for myself as good–though they will move suddenly and stupidly up and down as market generalists move in and out of the market, and large leftover positions in WDO and KL, which I like. I strongly second Chartmaster’s CEF; also PHYS — and if you want to gamble in silver, PSLV — provided if you are a US person you have made sure with your tax expert about PFICs. I also have large bets in explorers and developers — in IRAs, which I believe (hope I’m right!!!–no expert here!) give me safety from PFIC regs — but these are all in countries I understand a teensie bit.

   These do not include South Africa. I would not touch anything there with a 10 mile pole, but I am not you. I have a hard enough time understanding the US, where I have spent much of my life, or the other countries I have studied. So I personally would not touch HMY.

   You get absolutely contradictory advice on averaging down. I ignore all of it personally.

   So that’s my opinion. One often does well to go opposite to my opinion.

3. Northstar says:

   August 21, 2020 - 3:41 pm at 3:41 pm

   Chart posted above 🙂

4. Chartsmaster says:

   August 22, 2020 - 7:55 am at 7:55 am

   Don’t want to come across as preachy, but since you asked about HGY here are my thoughts. Since we all have limited resources(remember definition of economics is the study of allocation of scarce resources) I try to not only get as much bang for my buck, but limit the amount of risk. You can only buy so many stocks. First I stay away from potentially risky jurisdictions. No South Africa, no South America, preference goes to US, Canada, Australia. I look at charts not just to see where to buy but what to buy. Stocks like HGY were significantly higher in the past and therefore have lots of resistance.(holders who are losing and looking to at least get even.) Why not buy companies either making ATH’s or at least close to doing so?