Loading ...50 Years Of Data Suggest A Large Correction Is Looming
The CCI indicator going back to the 1970’s…EVERY time we’ve been this high, a correction of at least 25% and 6 months has followed. Don’t shoot the messenger, just a casual observation. It might be different this time, and regardless of a large correction, we will still be in a bull market, even if many lose faith.
My view is we have another couple of weeks of pullback then the move upwards continues. Historical moment
Do we know the month the CCI peaked in 79?
September…
Oddly the silver price climbed until January. Price usually drops when CCI does, but occasionally it carries on up for a while after CCI has turned down. That happened in 2010 as well…both were the parabolic ‘blow-off’ tops.
Maybe we can infer that as long as silver corrects when CCI turns down, we’re not at the final blow-off phase…
I don’t want to believe it but it’s a pretty convincing chart. There doesn’t seem to be a single exception and the current CCI peak is well up into the upper range of all of them. 2011 looks a little complicated but we’re currently at a higher value than that peak and of course a very extended fall came after that one. Nice work.
Nice. Interesting.
However–
Others may disagree with my cynicism, but I think the way the CCI has been calculated has been changed over the years. In the current setting of accelerating changes of depictions of reality from above by those who supposedly know more than we and certainly own and control more than we, the CCI may occultly be changing rapidly and with accelerating change, and with higher order change than just acceleration. They may just be lying laughing their heads off with boisterous guffaws of insanity and viciousness. Or just underlings’ bureaucratic boredom.
As for silver, although others may not agree with my ideas of big entities’ gaming the system and manipulation, I believe that even without such things the amount of play money being thrown into the system by central banks as well as underlying economic problems may make any system so unstable as to increase unreliability of price prediction.
Nevertheless a swing downwards of 25% would not be surprise me.
My unhelpfully cynical comments, but really nice charts.
Thanks Karl and Tim. I’m open to it being ‘different this time’ and would love to hear someone explain why it might be. I think Patrick is going to take a look…
I wouldn’t be too concerned. The correction from the recent high of basically 30 is likely to be to 21-22.(My targets) If your premise of 25+% from high is correct that would be basically 21.50. As far as time frame, I felt the correction was going to be either sharp and short(most likely and I believe should be over by next week) or elongated but not very deep. Get ready to buy if see 21-22 by next week.