Loading ...Gold to $8000? #Whatif
I like to drink bourbon and make crazy charts. I find it interesting that the year 1996 – 2004 rounded bottom is about the same length in total days as the 2011 – 2020 rounded bottom. From that bottom in 1999 we had a 662% increase that took 6 years once the breakout started. I think we are in the era of negative yield debt, which was the major driver of a breakout in 2019.
The correction in 2004 right after the breakout dropped gold a little less than 10%. The high was retested, and then it made another low to make a 13% correction.
When gold broke the 2011 high, we had about a 10% correction again.
Gold 10YR seasonality ends on September 2 on average for the last 10 years. This “little” correction we have had is actually right on schedule. It is big yes, but that is a testament to the overbought level it reached. Gold had a daily RSI reading of 90.5 at the high, a value only surpassed in 1999 of 92.1.
I think it is entirely possible that we revisit the high in the next two weeks to kill off the 10YR seasonality. However, if 2009 is a $DXY lesson, we could actually increase gold to the end of the year in December.
DXY in 2008 – 2009
Compare to DXY 2020, same sequence
Negative yield debt breaking out again. The last time this happened was August 2019, which ended the gold 7 year lean years.
Good day.
Did you make the charts before or after drinking bourbon? Just kidding. Reasonable comparison and good questions.
I like your thinking 🙂
Please have another on me??
Alf Field calculated based on his theory that some day gol will be $6000. That was when gold was $300. No one believed him. Today it seems a reality or at least people want consider the thought.
“Alf Field’s theory from 1970:
“The beauty of EW is that the corrections in gold are remarkably regular and consistent.”
“Using this method I calculated that the gold price should rise from the $300 ruling in 2002 to at least $750 without having anything worse than two 16% corrections on the way. That was valuable information at that time. Furthermore, from the $750 target a big 32% correction could be expected to about $500. Then the bull market would resume, rising to perhaps $2,500 before another 32% correction occurred. The final up-move would take the gold price to much higher levels, possibly $6,000. Once again, a valuable insight when gold was $300 in 2002.””
That’s neat