Goldtent TA Paradise

How much longer will it last??

1. Northstar says:

   August 4, 2020 - 5:18 pm at 5:18 pm

   I agree, time is surely running out on this particular run up. Maybe $2050 to $2100

2. KenS says:

   August 4, 2020 - 5:50 pm at 5:50 pm

   With trillions and trillions of new dollars in the economy it could go much farther than most people would think.

   • KenS says:

     August 4, 2020 - 5:51 pm at 5:51 pm

     Bubbles, bubbles everywhere…

     • Noman says:

       August 4, 2020 - 6:41 pm at 6:41 pm

       Is it a bubble or the early stages of a hyperinflation? In 1920 Germany it was like this. People did not know it was a hyperinflation for two more years just like folks did not know they were in a depression until about 15 months after the 1929 peak.

3. Noman says:

   August 4, 2020 - 6:20 pm at 6:20 pm

   In 1979 silver got very overbought and stayed that way. When gold changes in one day say 200-300 dollars we may be near a top.

4. Noman says:

   August 4, 2020 - 6:21 pm at 6:21 pm

   Say $5-8 dollars for silver

5. Nautilus says:

   August 4, 2020 - 6:31 pm at 6:31 pm

   I hate to say, but I agree we are likely within a few days to two weeks max of a massive correction. Maybe gold drops back to the $1750-$1800 level and silver to $20-21. Last week’s candle was ugly in a number of miners, and I reckon any gains we get from here will almost surely all be given back during the next correction.

   I have resisted the urge to take profits until now, but I will likely sell 10% of my taxable portfolio in the next week or two. Maybe that’s a good contrarian indicator as I haven’t dared add anything to my positions for months now and we have kept going up. I have still not gotten that surge of greed that has me scrambling to add funds or heaven forbid use margin. I have been pretty unexcited about this entire move, probably because I have been waiting so damn long and I am still far away from making life changing amounts of money.

6. Noman says:

   August 4, 2020 - 6:32 pm at 6:32 pm

   In 1942 the Fed increased its balance sheet eleven fold. If we do the same today that would mean the $4 trillion balance sheet would rise to $44 trillion. Tally Ho!

7. Noman says:

   August 4, 2020 - 6:35 pm at 6:35 pm

   In 1971 gold was $38. It rose to $200 by 4th qtr 1974 and then fell in half to $104 months later. As we all know it then rose to $800 on Jan 21 1980.

8. Noman says:

   August 4, 2020 - 6:42 pm at 6:42 pm

   Is it a bubble or the early stages of a hyperinflation? In 1920 Germany it was like this. People did not know it was a hyperinflation for two more years just like folks did not know they were in a depression until about 15 months after the 1929 peak.

9. Karl says:

   August 4, 2020 - 6:51 pm at 6:51 pm

   I don’t know. As always, having cash to pay bills (tax, tuition…) is important. Paying off debt is nice although people smarter than I can use debt to their advantage.

   This is one of the situations where something can be beyond 2 standard deviations. It could keep running indefinitely. It could pull back violently, it could stall. I don’t think it is good to be dogmatic. In these situations many of the oscillators, which are developed for the usual situations, as are many of the usual rules, are less useful than usual. Cash management is more useful, as above. I think one bets what one feels comfortable betting and can afford to bet — after conservative allowances are made for coming expenses including possible unlikely bad stuff such as when your neighbor’s pet chinchilla has a slip and fall on your sidewalk and your neighbor sues for a billion dollars and your insurance won’t cover.

   I think it helps a little to see how the charts look as things develop. I think it helps to see how the headlines are, to see the relative focus on this stuff compared to COVID, middle east tension, oil prices, NASDAQ, Hollywood…

   I have my guesses that I was going to express at length but why bother. I **guess** the wealthiest families and cartels, to the extent they haven’t loaded up on gold, will be loading up even more now, and the somewhat lower strata of rich and super-rich are going to really start shovelling and include silver too, but there will be some of the usual games.

10. Noman says:

    August 4, 2020 - 7:02 pm at 7:02 pm

    The gap between the working poor and the top percent is disgusting. It gets wider each day. That’s why I believe we are entering a neo feudal like society. Sad.

11. Noman says:

    August 4, 2020 - 7:11 pm at 7:11 pm

    If we had a Jubilee and debts were reset/wiped out the banking class would die and the working class would be less likely to cut off our heads.

    • KenS says:

      August 4, 2020 - 10:41 pm at 10:41 pm

      Agree. A planned erasing of debts is Mich better than it happening unexpectedly. Much less damaging.

12. Noman says:

    August 4, 2020 - 7:13 pm at 7:13 pm

    I voted for Trump. My wife and I sent money to his nascent campaign before he announced. They cashed every check.

13. Aurum Maximus says:

    August 4, 2020 - 7:24 pm at 7:24 pm

    The beatings will continue until morale improves!

14. YYZ says:

    August 5, 2020 - 3:41 am at 3:41 am

    I don’t believe serious inflation can really take off until velocity (confidence) recovers. Right now the stimulus currency is going 1) to stocks, 2) payoff debt and 3) saving – all of which does not translate into velocity rising. Heh, if only the stock market trading could translate into a true exchange of goods and services. I guess that’s inflation. Don’t we want our markets to be like those below – YEA we’re all rich MF’s ! /sarc

    Historically velocity has taken a HUGE hit.
    https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Velocity-Of-Money-chart/M2/

    Zimbabwe stocks
    https://tradingeconomics.com/zimbabwe/stock-market
    Venezuelan stocks
    https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/stock-market