Loading ...Is This Still a World Wide “Pandemic ? “
Lest do the math
Here are the Numbers from Worldometer for Mild vs Serious Or Critical Cases
And For every 1 case diagnosed there are perhaps 10 cases undiagnosed….especially in third world countries one can imagine.
So You can extrapolate that at most .1% of people with tiny pieces of the covid virus ( which is what they test for) have a serious disease.
66 Thousand people in the whole world have a serious disease “caused” by covid virus.
There are 7.8 Billion people in the world .
So this “Pandemic” is seriously affecting .0008 % of the worlds population (8 out of 1 Million)
And since 75% of all deaths ( extrapolate serious cases) are over 80 years old… only 1 of these 8 is under the age of 80.
So if you are under 80 years old your chances of presently having a serious disease in this “pandemic” is 1
in 1 Million .
So here are some comparisons :
In the USA The following are the Odds of Dying in a lifetime :
Gun assault 1 in 298
Accidental gun discharge 1 in 9,077
Electrocution, radiation, extreme temperatures, and pressure 1 in 12,484
Sharp objects 1 in 29,483
Hot surfaces and substances 1 in 45,186
Hornet, wasp, and bee stings 1 in 53,989
Dog attack 1 in 118,776
Lightning 1 in 180,746
It is so hard to know. It is saintly of you to try, I think.
I used to think I might make some sense of what is happening in about a year, but I am not sure that it will ever be apparent, at least for public view and discussion.
*Deaths* seem a little more reliable as a metric than *cases* but not very. Often multiple pathologies may contribute to a person’s death, and there may be legitimate reason to choose more than one. The choice may be arbitrary. It could be affected by politics, by culture, and so forth. For many diseases I would have said that quality of reporting would have been highly suspect in parts of the third world. The extreme politics in some jurisdictions outside the third world countries may affect the quality of reporting in oddball ways.
I have about 32 different opinions on various aspects of this topic during the course of the day.
When during the course of the day I travel into paranoid mode I wonder about release of new strains, or whether the bug has as its own natural feature a yet poorly appreciated tendency to mutate extremely.
The one thing I do know is that open discussion without censorship will in the long run and even pretty short runs help, whereas closing down discussion will have bad to devastating results. Scientific advance depends on doubt, controversy, rethinking, and free discourse, not so much on muzzling.
hear hear
Pundemic, it’s a pundemic. That’s where the elites have their pet politicians create ridiculous laws so they can bust a gut watching us attempt to comply as we destroy our economy. Apparently, it’s all the rage.
Ask yourself if you know of anyone who’s sick. That’s the real measure of a public health risk, I’d say. Everybody’s looking for some expert’s chart to tell them what they can see for themselves if they just stop and think. I’ve made this mistake myself with the weather. There were times I would go to the weather web site to see what the weather was like when I suddenly realized I could just look out the window! We’re too used to discounting our own opinions and looking to “experts” with “credentials” and “training”.
I liked how one of the Frontline Doctors said that the obstacles to reopening schools won’t be medical ones, they’ll be political ones: unions, protest groups… It’s pretty scary how the Frontline Doctors got censored online so quickly. The covid folks might be getting desperate to keep this going until the US election.
As I have posted a number of times. It is ALL political. They tried multiple illegal ways to remove President Trump and failed. They want to keep schools closed and as much of economy locked down until the election. They want as many key states to go all mail in voting so they can steal the election. Covid 24/7 fades awaw after the election. Of course the will still try to push vaccine but that is secondary.
Surely you are wrong there Fully. The math doesn’t seem right. You are comparing the odds of dying from Covid-19 in the last few months to the odds of dying from other random events over a lifetime. To perform a true comparison, you need to calculate the odds of dying fron Covid-19 in a lifetime based on the assumption the death figures stay the same for 80 years (a lifetime) – that will tell you how the risks compare. Quick way of doing it is to multiply the US numbers of Covid deaths by 2 to make it cover 1 year, and then by 80 to cover a lifetime.
Northstar You are missing my point I think
The math I presented shows clearly that 1 in 1 million who are less than 80 years old PRESENTLY are “suffering” from a “severe” case of covid.
66,000 in the whole world are in the severe category Presently.
That was my point .
You cannot call this a pandemic when it it only affecting 66,000 in a world of 7.8 Billion !
I added the statistics below that for effect.
They are death statistics in the US over a life time ..You are correct they cannot be actually compared to the present serious illness category for covid .
1…because the later are NOT deaths they are illnesses and
2…because they are a snapshot in time while the former are over a lifetime
However Covid will one day not be killing many people while lightning will.
Maybe another way of thinking about it is this: Around 150,000 official Covid-19 deaths in the USA in the last 5 months or so. How many have died from the categories you listed above in the last 5 months ? That would be a perfect risk comparison.