Loading ...Trading the Bull Market.
As said I have been in several gold bull markets. Have a trading portfolio and a hold portfolio. Guess what? My trading portfolio has never beaten my hold portfolio. I’m pretty savy and a decent trader but those are the facts. This morning there were a hundred reasons to sell, step aside , assess. All of the reasons to sell are valid and logical. We are certainly in a bull market and I would suggest not putting limitations on our expectations. What I know is that we get trending moves or impulses that tend to give us near doubles in the indexes and then we have to wait for five to 12 months before the next segment begins.
Octavio Costa is a much younger me and he argues that miner balance sheets are the cleanest of any sector in the stock market and that free cash flow in the miners is driving upwards so strongly that AUM, assets
under management will be compelled to buy in even if they have been conditioned not to.
Thanks for this invaluable insight on your experience Noman. Appreciated.
Thanks Patrick. The thing that most intrigues me is whether this leg will be a normal leg or some multiple of that, a double leg that yields say 160% or more. Endless possibilities.
One more thing is I suggest that when a poster posts a chart of a thinly traded miner, usually under a Dollar, new folks should not buy it that day. Wait a few days, see if it fits your profile.
You are so very right. And what is worse is the exceptions that make you forget the rules.
There is so much more to the story than just the move up.
Some patterns can be largely self-fulfilled prophecies. Some subscription service writes something up — something thinly traded — then automatic BREAK-OUT! Some signs like this (breakout) don’t mean what they do for a highly liquid stock with a large market cap. (Other signs such as cup and handle often are rather valuable).
It is so hard to know. Even the pros I think admit that after decades they are still fooled by these markets.
Unfortunately, sometimes — as the occasional exception — it goes up the day in question and just keeps going up and up for days. Then you are trained to buy instantly. It’s hard to unlearn the memory. The reinforcement patterns work badly against your overall success.
An example would be 49 North resources that was recco on 321gold over the weekend. It shot up 35% yesterday when it opened and now is drifting back to where it was before the mention.
Agreed 1000%
Thanks Noman…It’s sage advice.
But when a 20% correction comes …it is still very difficult to just sit
During the 2016 run JNUG had violent 25 to 30% 1-2 day corrections and then simply shot right back up… Now its a only a double etf so 15 -20% should be expected.
Anyone else see a shooting star in QQQ?
Didn’t until you mentioned it but was researching QQQ now vs.Mar. 2000 top earlier today. This looks like the top!
Bravo Bravo Noman… what an honest and accurate admission. I wish others would realize this truism. It is what the passage is all about written by Jesse Livermore about Mr. Partridge. PS I have had the same result, but I still do trade, but the big wins are in the buy and hold.
I have never read Jesse’s book but I should.