$BPGDM @ 100%
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=8&id=p84881886797&a=216349775&listNum=12
it got to 100% one time before that i know of some time in 2016
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I would think a pullback is coming over the next few weeks.
What is the longest time frame you can get for that? Monthly Chart? Thanks
right now the $BPGDM is tied to the GDX index which started in 2006, but the $BPGDM goes back to at least 1990 and i don’t know what index it followed before the GDX
Also, is there such an index for the Silver miners? Mmmmmm
Crud! That’s no beuno
2 options here. A rapid spike followed by large correction, or large correction before any further advance. Its finely balanced. Thanks for the chart.
Yes… I’m going through BB charts and other breadth or overextended indicators on monthly chart…mixed bag… I’m gonna favor a 70/30 chance we spike ahead of a correction… but a slow correction over time (not price) would also be healthier. Note… this is for GOLD complex. If vix and dxy to continue deflating.. then I’m arguing gsr will also… so makes sense gold stalls and silver RISES. I’m gonna look into silver breadth indicators to support or refute my theory.
the $BPGDM went to 100% on july 1 2016 and then went up about an additional 9% in about 6 weeks before going down about 40% in about 18 weeks
a sample size of one…
Thanks Starr
Good sleuthing .
I’d rather the BPGDM oscilate between 70-100 for next foreseeable future… and correct to 30% from a higher vantage point.. turning important resistance into support.
Personally I see rotation the GDX is Large Caps
But here come the micro caps !
Exactly. Also like to add that is a daily chart (I believe…). On a monthly chart, you might want this indicator over bought. .. Or like the COT index… sometimes a small correction in price can go a long way to reset an indicator for a next leg up from a higher low on the price action. What this tells me though… probably not the best time to enter the gdx… but lagging charts with embryonic setups.. shouldnt be much worries.
Here is how that index is calculated. https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_indicators:bullish_percent_index
Based on pnf.
Also…
”
An index with 30 or fewer stocks, such as the Gold Miners Index, Dow Industrials or Dow Transports, may reach 0% or 100% on occasion. Indices with over 2000 stocks, such as the Nasdaq and NYSE, are highly unlikely to reach 0% or 100%. Indices with fewer stocks are also more volatile because it takes fewer stocks to move the Bullish Percent Index.
“
More on how to interpret..
”
Bull Alert: BPI is below 30% and then forms a new column of X’s (rises)
Bear Alert: BPI is above 70% and then forms a new column of O’s that decline below 70%.
Bull Confirmed: BPI is on a P&F buy signal and in a column of X’s (rising).
Bear Confirmed: BPI is on a P&F sell signal and in a column of O’s (falling).
Bull Correction: BPI is on a P&F buy signal, but currently falling (column of O’s).
Bear Correction: BPI is on a P&F sell signal, but currently rising (column of X’s).
”
If signal stays above 70.. simple correction.
Again.. this tracks gdm and not gdx (both I believe both are highly correlated)
So a breadth inidcator… you could also use % of stocks above their 50 day MA.. or 200 day. Lets says for tsx venture… need more vantage points.
With the trillions $$ that have been poured into the economies of the world lately, all the old rules are out the window for now. Bubbles are forming all over, but one can do well while they last – and they should last for some time yet.
Exacte. Chances increase we go bubble mode… versus a healthy pullback. I guess we’ll just pay the piper a little later then!