Over the past few sessions, we have seen unprecedented block trade activity on GDX. I believe they are preparing for a drop back to 32.00-32.50.

A major debate has been happening trying to decipher if we are repeating DEC 2008 – MAR 2009 or possibly APR 2009/2010/2011. In OCT 2008 there was the “asset reset” where everything was sold, literally nothing was safe. Stocks, bonds, metals, junk was all on a fire sale. Directly afterward gold bottomed and was quickly bid back up. This happened again around March 18 of this year as silver and platinum did the unthinkable.

I truly believe that gold is on a run similar to 2003 and 2009 and will last a few years, my minimum target over the next 6-12 months is $2100. However, we do have to contend with some seasonality aspects, which do say that gold is no bueno before June 15 or so. In 2009 and 2010 this was different, directly after the APR FOMC statement then gold was bid up to late May or early June. Are we doing that same thing again this year? It’s possible.

I am having an open mind here and am prepared for small corrections along the way. I do not think that GDX is sustainable in this upward channel, it has displayed a strong bearish divergence. If it pops out of this super high sloped channel I suspect sideways-corrective action.

Here are the notable dark pool blocks taken from the telegram application I host for my subscribers for the previous 7 sessions:

The volume is in thousands. There was a single 5.9 million block trade on APR 30, we are currently 2% above that block at this writing. We have had more blocks pour in today, another single 1.5 million block, and a 500k block. We are currently beneath those. The only other time I saw this level of block activity on GDX was pre- and post- Trump election.

GDX made it all the way to Year Camarilla R4 which is pretty crazy considering the bottom this year but hey, this is circa QE Infinity.

If you want to see what a Year Camarilla pivot can do, check out this post before gold’s first “topping” back in February:


I’m trying to think out of the box here. In my mind either we commit to “normal” seasonality which begs a mild selloff into late May with equities (which aren’t really doing that much except for russell 2000), or we just continue to rip higher. Gold has been lock step with the 10 Y bond the last few sessions and will probably continue doing so. It is not DXY, it is not “gold is now correlated with stocks”, or oil, it is the 10Y bond. If there is any argument that we repeated OCT 2008 it is that after the “reset” where everything was sold, everything was bought back up. Eventually gold can act as a fear hedge and expected inflation hedge, maybe that time is now where it decouples from everything but the 10Y?


~ M