Loading ...General Market Stocks vs PM Stocks
Been watching that Dow and S&P and NASDQ go up and up and up. Getting within shouting distance of the old highs.
Every day I get an email about a great stock pick and the stats with which to select such barn burners. Many have doubled, many are up 75%+.
Sometimes, I wish I had listened to my dad about PMs. He believed there was a time and place for them, and a time and place for Dow/S&P/NASDQ shares. Had I listened to him over the last five year, three years, two years, I would be yards ahead vs all the shenanigans of PMs. I wonder what it is that is bent in my psyche that entices me to play such a silly game.
Many of us have been around 20 years, some almost 50 years. My dad got me into gold stocks in the early 1970s…but being a young idiot I missed that big run. But when 2002 rolled around, he once again said: “time for gold.” And THAT was the monster of bull markets in the PMs. He listened to the warning signs and was out of gold and into regular stocks around 2012. He enjoyed another great run, riding that bull for all it was worth. Unfortunately, he died before he could see the full fruit of his choices.
Now, it seems, we get excited about some short, small spurts, while the mainline rakes in capital gains and large dividends. Do I believe the system is shot through with rot? You betcha. But I have to scratch my head at how long this charade has been going on, and how it now continues. Yup, we’ve made some good money in the last while, but the big market stocks dwarf many of those gains. The general market is capable of steadily increasing, but not so for precious metal stocks.
So, the punch has been put back into the punchbowl. The market continues to rise with gusto. While once again we wait…wait…wait for the PM bull to speak with authority.
Personally, I believe the certified Gold Bugs would make a rich hunting ground for psychoanalysis. But I ain’t telling anyone!
Would like you to expound on what it was that gave your dad such a good big picture cycle analysis.
The one insight I have towards your pondering on why? It is typical for one to be attracted to a sector that did well in ones very formative years. Usually teens into early twenties. Often one goes through life searching for this theme to renew itself.
I have seen a lot of this in myself. I try to be objective and avoid this now
Well, that’s a great bit of insight, Plunger. Never would have figured you struggling to be objective.
I think that’s what set my dad apart. After he made his bones in the 1970s – 1980s, and experienced some losses, he began reading a wide array of financial publications and resources. I can remember going down to the local drugstore on Sunday mornings to pick up a copy of Barron’s so he could study it. Every week.
His reading material would appear to be somewhat eclectic, but each of them had a purpose. He got me into Stansberry Research which has made many people if not wealthy, well off. He read Meyer’s publication out of Canada for years. Also subscribed to a service that tracked all investments from the philosophy that war drives everything.
He’d read all of this stuff, ponder it, let it stew for awhile. He never made a knee-jerk decision – it was always well thought out and rationalized, and he kept detailed records of everything he bought and sold. We threw out several filing cabinets full of his records of investing when he died at the ripe age of 95. In every investment he made, I never saw him take a gamble or a long shot. It was always a “sure thing” – and most often it was a sure thing. He got in early and then sat on it. Sometimes for years.
He did the same with the gold stocks he bought in the 70’s. He used to show me how he built up his retirement fund by buying 100 shares at $5 a share, or $7 a share, and then sat on it as it rose, split, rose again, paid hefty dividends. He was the perfect model for getting right and sitting tight.
Hope that helps. I don’t believe he ever got into the cycles thingy. To me, that is a pretty recent phenomenon, and I never heard him mention it.
Like you, I’ve been searching/hoping for that former experience for about 10 years now. I was lucky – in 1997 I got a job in Dallas as a business development consultant. Those were the hay-days of generous 401Ks to “retain employees.” When December 2000 hit, I could not believe what was going on in the markets and I sold everything I had and went to cash. Talked with my dad, and sure enough, he said “Look at gold.” That little thingy right there – listening to my still small voice that the nonsense on the NASDQ could not go on forever – saved my bacon. It allowed me to send both of my kids to private colleges, took some marvelous trips, bankrolled my daughter’s wedding (still cannot believe how much that cost) before ignoring Rambus’ warnings in 2011. Promptly lost most everything. Well, not promptly, it was spread over several years.
I had a little bit of a nest egg left over when I spotted Spock – rode his bunch for huge gains from Jan till August; then promptly gave it all back again. So I guess that makes about there fortunes I have squandered.
Finally decided I needed some serious TA guidance, found Rambus through this group. I was around for the big split from the original Tent and left a bad taste in my mouth so walked away for quite awhile. Glad I “re-found” this stellar group and glad I am plugged into Rambus, too.
Now let’s see if our precious can deliver the goods one.more.time. while I am still “young enough” to enjoy it.
The voice of much experience there Silverboom. Let’s see what happens now we’re up 100% or so, coming out of this enormous 7 year base.
Great Post and observations Boomer
I need that shrink…whats the number ?
Howdy Silverboom, thanks for sharing! I graduated UNT in 95 and started my first career in Dallas as a copywriter for the Dallas Stars. We were there at the same time. I moved to Austin pretty quick and never left. I still go up there to visit friends or take Bill Murphy out to dinner at Javier’s and listen to his crazy stories!
I used to race Javier in the 90’s when we had Ferrari’s and the Houston dealership would rent the racetrack for us to drive around the track. It was mostly driver school and follow the leader activity. They had formula 1 drivers who would lead and no matter how hard you tried you could not follow them into a turn and stay with them.