Loading ...Finish line (+open interest ratio)
As Northstar has recently pointed out…gold could be running out of steam, using up lots of energy to fight resistance, as price action is closing in on ALL-TIME highs.
Here is the “juice” left in the purchasing power tank! Enter the non-reporting small-speculators…
Edit: To avoiding missing the point of this exercise … don’t take literally “purchasing power”… just focus on gold price reaction with indicators!
Edit: adding ratio vs open interest as suggested by Bikoo! Thanks for the great ideas guys!
Patrick forgive me BUT
The Small Specks as they are affectionately know in the futures market are the Dumb and Scared Money.
They spook when prices take a hit .
The Smart money of course are th Commercials
They scalp the small specs every time
To use the small specs as “Fuel” seems a stretch to me.
The total amount they hold at any one time in $ terms is miniscule compared to the Large Specs.
They cannot and do not move the market with their piddly little positions IMHO.
The charts shows me they follow pretty well the price of gold. Do they move or follow the price? Does it matter? Use them as an indicator.. spot divergence.. strengthen your weight of evidence. If you look back.. alot of other occasions they gave GREAT signals.
OK
I must admit, I analyse relationships between indicators and price too. I zone out what they mean most of the time – it can be a distraction from the pure mathematical and statistical relationship. Case in point – COT data. If I followed the perceived wisdom, I would’ve been shorting gold like Henrik Zeberg since $1300.
Yeah. I’m trying to keep an open mind.. but EW is a tough pill to swallow… IF used in a vacuum. It doesn’t take into account a 7 year base.. or a climbing 3 year moving average… or any other type of weight of evidence. And there seems to be confusing within the EW circle where the pivot points are. Maybe I’ll change my mind some day.. right now, I think it’s more noise than help. Wait.. did Henrick short based on COT data alone then made his EW count fit that narrative? Yikes!
Problem for me with EW is it’s too complex
So may different interpretations for the same data.
I have rarely seen EW proponents in agreement on these complex wave structures.
Simple is for my simple mind
I totally agree.