My Present take on This MESS

1…Social Distancing HAS flattened the Curve .

2…Cases are plateauing but not declining appreciably in USA and Canada and UK yet bUt are expected to soon.

3…Cases ARE declining in Europe.

4…Hospitals and Medical Supplies are now coping …most have NOT been overwhelmed at any point in time

except in Italy , Spain , France and New York City but these areas now seen to have excess capacity and enough Supplies from what we can tell.

5…Swab Testing for the active virus is increasing everywhere .

6…Blood testing for antibodies is becoming available rapidly and even accurate 10 minute testing

This will greatly increase the understanding of the spread of the virus …and GREATLY decrease the death rate.

Presently the death rate from “known” cases is ~5% worldwide…A preliminary study in NYC shows 20% of the population has the antibody ( still not sure if the test is accurate but very interesting) California studies show 5%
or more)

Preliminary estimates are that 10 to 50 times the number of people have had the virus and recovered , many with no symptoms…..this would imply a death rate of .5% to .01%

Note Death from the seasonal flu is said to be .01%

7…Many articles are claiming there was an increase of severe Flu Like Illnesses as far back as November in certain regions of North America…many were tested and NO flu was found in samples.
One person is confirmed to have died with covid as early as Feb 6…and now they are testing tissue samples of earlier cases…the suspicion is growing that Covid was in North America much earlier than the original belief.

8…My personal situation is I had 3 episodes of severe Flu like symptoms One in Early Nov one around Christmas and one Mid February..I never really felt all better until Mid march…4 Months. In reading about symptoms In many confirmed cases I am near certain I had covid as far back as November. The fatigue was profound and relentless .

Many of my friends neighbors co workers and family also had these symptoms for similar durations. never had a flu that was so severe nor lasted so long.

I am contacting local public health to see if we can be tested for antibodies.

9…I did some research and many areas like the South Eastern states and Washington State California and Southern Ontario (My region) have reported earlier and more severe clusters of Flu Like symptoms than in a usual flu season..and most of the hospitalized cases tested negative for flu viruses.

10…THIS BLEW ME AWAY ….From October 15 to 27 the The “7th CISM Military World Games ” ( Military Olympics)
were held in………..wait for it……


11…THE LARGEST military BASE for the Canadian Armed Forces is Base Borden which is 30 minutes from my office and similar from my home !

12…Many patients I see work there or in the adjacent town of Angus….I and half my staff had these symptoms starting 2 weeks after these “Games”

13…Ontario has a population of 13 Million…so far there have been 13,000 documented positive cases

760 deaths….480 of them patients in nursing homes….so 280 in the otherwise general population !

14…Perhaps we need to just lock down nursing homes and get everybody else back to work and play.

15….Summary :
a…. Covid has likely been with us since November 2019.
b…….. 280 out of 13 Million in the general population have died from it in Ontario .002% ( 2 out of 100 Thousand )
c……..The death rate from infections is likely .5% to .01%.
d…..The Hospital system here is well stocked and well staffed and the ICU and ventilator capacity has been adequate during these crutial first months…and the Medical Community is Amazing in their dedication and we all owe them a ton of respect !
e…Social distancing has flattened the curve and has been successful and necessary until now. Good job everybody !
f…Virus infections in general usually are greatly reduced starting in late April and May .

16…Is it Time ?