Hi Folks, I haven’t updated these long term charts in a while and now seems as good a time as any.

This is a look at the miners over the last 80 years or so in a monthly line chart. It is my proposal that they have essentially been in a consolidation since the 1980 peak after a 20 year 3700% bull. Looks like a monthly close over 2008 low and the 2016 high would get the BGMI over the blue channel midline and the major black channel quarter line constituting a break out.

If the miners BO one would assume continued Gold strength as the miners have largely ignored the move in Gold so far. Two targets seem appropriate….the ATH and the rail off the 1980 peak to 2011 peak which is in the $2400 range. Truthfully, my biggest fear is we are about to put in a 3rd point in larger consolidation such as a rectangle or triangle…think S&P 2007… NOBODY is considering this. I’ll be very cautious if Miners end up backtesting the head shoulder breakdown region and Gold is in the 1900 region…or if miners make a new high while Gold doesn’t. I know that doesn’t jive with the chart above but I’m just putting it out there. Nothing is impossible in this current environment imo…and remember traditionally Gold bulls occur during major market consolidations. Just something I’m keeping aware of when/if the time comes.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rMseGHej/

This last chart is the baby of the previous two. It is highlighting the generational blowoff low the ratio put in in 2016. The 2016 high backtested the previous 1942 low and then continued to fill out in the wedge…giving a pretty flag appearance which failed. It now looks like ABC hopeful wave 2 low. The ratio looks primed for outperformance over the metals. These are big ship charts and they take time to fill out and most of the time things take way longer than we think.

Also, in case anyone wanted a longterm look at Silver. Cheers

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