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Those of you who follow me will know I’ve remained convinced for years that we’re in a young PM bull market, and I’ve posted literally thousands of charts to help you keep the faith. Well, this is the final part of the initial leg – a return to that $1800-$1900 zone. Looking at how far we are above the 12 month moving average, we should have enough in the tank to get to $1850. I’d like to see a spike to $1900, but it’s in that region where I’d urge caution. We’re likely (in my view) to have some kind of pause/consolidation (handle ?). I’m not sure yet, how long it might last, but it may well allow those who are nimble enough to exit and re-enter some of their positions.
A combination of distance from moving average (Patrick has some great charts on that), technical indicators and cycle timing will give us clues. Stay nimble and be ready.
It’s worth saying that buy on weakness and hold is going to work just fine – we have many more years to go in this bull and I believe we’re heading much, much higher this time around.
Thank you, Northstar. I appreciate all of your chart work over the years.
Kudos to You Northstar for Staying the Course !
You’ve been right so long. It’s pretty astounding, really. Thanks for putting this information out.
If you are not using margin.. Be Right-Sit Tight
Northstar, GDX is breaking out. New 1-year high. Thoughts on where it goes??
Hi Cedarwood. I think we’ve all been waiting for the miners to come to life. As per Plungers ‘4 horsemen’ we can see the big, investment grade miners making big moves now. This is undoubtedly due to inflows from larger fund managers – a classic early sign of PM bull market confirmation. If GDX closes the week above the magic $32, it’s yet another confirmation. I’d expect a pause around $40-$45, before a move to the $48-$50 area. I think the miners will accelerate quickly to new highs as gold clears $1900 (with many years of the bull market left to run). My recent post for HUI gives a bit of a visual representation.
I’m thinking 5 months consolidation, based on the time other fiats took to breakout of their equivalent bowls, but could be alot faster this time for usd.. as all the QE and stimulus wasn’t even on the table back then… also the 2600$ target is my longer term target (18 months max). With ups and downs along the way. Until another close below 30 week MA or 12 month MA… the chart is telling you to hold. I’ll have to see what price point we are at when we hit the resistance on “distance from ma” .. If we go up slowly.. we could be alot higher and still not be too stretched from MA. I’d rather that scenario… but this seems to want to be more violent than that. So much energy contained. Also the COT.. until that index bottoms down.. it’s actually time to load up now more than ever. even if slightly stretched from MA.