Weight of evidence.
Time frame, to avoid confusing, is the manageable monthly time frame. Anythings trending below a declining 1 year moving average shall be deemed in a down trend.
US Dollar => up trend
Gold => up trend
Silver => down trend
Copper => down trend
Oil => down trend
Stock Markets => down trend
Bonds => up trend
Inflation expectations => down trend
Am I missing something? Maybe when daily, then weekly charts start flipping the script we can hope for possible trend changes
That all Sounds Right Patrick
Long term trends first …then watch shorter terms for trading