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I just checked in with one of the larger bullion dealers in the U.S. that I have a relationship of 15 years. Last week they couldn’t give away junk silver at .39 over spot. Now it is $2.00+ over. Generic rounds, or better yet their best deal is 100oz bars are $2.70+ over spot but the market is moving all over. And if you find any of that amazing please consider the fact that they have ZERO physical. They are however taking orders for 2-4 weeks out delivery. I personally never buy physical unless they are looking at it and packing it up while I am on the phone. I expect this situation to get tighter and worse.
Silver has been in a relentless bear market for a decade in absolute terms and relative to just about every other asset on the planet, including the Japanese yen (yen is up over 300% vs silver since 2011). It’s time to show me the money, silver.
To me this looks more like 1987 than 2000 or 2008.
I spoke to my dealer today (the largest in the UK). They described it as an ‘unprecedented buying frenzy’ and that they had NEVER seen anything like it. Many types of 1oz gold and silver are out of stock, with waits of up to 2 weeks. Covid-19 may prevent delivery for months, so many are opting the free 6 month storage option.
I am looking for a capitulation spike down to buy sub 10 in the SLV a test of the October low in 2008. I will ride the SLV to the upside(hopefully!)
It should bounce and level off well below the 200 WMA. I think it is dead money for 2-3 years from whenever we bounce. I really hope I am wrong, but too much damage has been inflicted on the chart. It’s going to need another basing period from a lower level.
This isn’t 2008, when it was already in a well-established bull run. To the contrary, it is still in a bear market and now needs even more time. Again, I hope I am wrong.
Yes you are very logical in your thinking but…what about a supply crunch due to mines slowing down production, high grading or whatever. Silver is a byproduct but copper, zinc and lead prices are in the toilet also. Only gold is holding up. When this virus thing resolves and demand returns for stuff that is when a supply squeeze could occur.
No doubt about the fact that we are currently creating the conditions for a MASSIVE shortage of raw materials at some point in the future. The problem is, when is that switch going to be flipped? I am guessing most people thought 2016 would be it, but they were wrong.
I think the CRB it probably getting within a month or two of a bounce just like silver, but I think it will be dead money too for a few more years and things get really out of whack.
Again, I hope I am wrong. I foresee a relatively small V-shaped bounce (just enough to get everyone excited again) followed by a retest or even a marginal new low 1-2 years after the next peak.
I am looking to back up the truck at what I perceive to be the bottom in the long term silver chart. Looking at this chart I believe support will be somewhere between $8 to $10. I would start buying at $10 and cost average down.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24silver&p=M&yr=25&mn=10&dy=0&id=p25407615324&a=154586903&r=1584480863390&cmd=print