Echoing what Fully said in a recent post, Plungers ‘Post-Bubble Contraction’ work has been superb. If I’m reading it right, commodities and general stocks are screwed, the Dollar is heading to new highs and gold/gold stocks are set to out-perform (please correct me if I’m wrong). I’m not sure where Silver fits into his thoughts, as it’s part commodity, part monetary (on occasions), but if it starts to take on it’s monetary persona instead of its industrial one, it could do very well.

Where I’ve always agreed with Plunger is that Gold is in the early stages of its new bull market. Although my ‘Domed Dollar’ chart hasn’t broken yet, I now expect it to.

Earnings/revenue for so many of the companies that make up the main stock indices are going to fall off a cliff. Global trade is decimated. Travel, tourism and hospitality destroyed. Not just in a few countries, but everywhere. Not just for a 2 or 3 weeks, but many months. It’s the worst case scenario. Shutdowns, lockdowns, borders shut, curfews everywhere. Social unrest is a very real possibility. This is not to mention the enormous cost in human life which is at risk of unfolding/already unfolding.

There are very few places to protect wealth in such times, but you can look at the great depression where gold more than doubled between 1929 and 1934 and gold miners went up by hundreds of percent. The 1920’s and 30’s were a long time ago, but I do think gold will reflect the monetary debasement we’re about to see in a very big way.

It’s going to be a dangerous and rocky road ahead. The world has become so intricately interconnected in a way that just wasn’t the case 100 years ago. The dominoes are going to start falling soon, companies cutting back, scaling back, laying off workers. It’ll gather pace and risks turning into Lehman x 1000. Organisations collapse, default, then bigger organisations, connected companies, global companies, financial institutions, banks, the banking system and sovereign states. It’s no exaggeration to say, that unless this passes by April/May and we can all get back to ‘normal’, the damage will be too big to repair. A complete, and total write-down. I have no more idea than you do about the detail of how it will play out, but the big picture is coming into clear view and it’s ugly, very ugly.

The value of gold and silver could end up being the last thing on any of our minds.