Fully and the deflation gang was right!
Gotta listen to the charts… we might get inflation… but not now.
Edit: adding monthly chart… yikes!
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Thinks obviously look dire right now. The only prayer commodity bulls have is that this action over the last 3 weeks was perpetrated intentionally knowing that the Fed is going to unleash something unprecedented next week.
Short of that, stick a fork in it and get long AMZN.
Echo those thoughts Nautilus.
Sickens me…
I thought the yen ($XJY) was going to have a tough time getting through its declining 400 WMA and that looks to be true now, given this weeks unreal reversal back below it.
It’s quite possible the yen stays range bound until the end of the year. The flat 200 WMA will cross the 400 WMA sometime around October. If you are still a yen bull, it is possible it starts its real rise anywhere between the October 2020 and April 2021.
If the deflation is a bigger threat to Fed than inflation they will try to print their way into inflation. Can they do it? Not so far.
But they don’t want commodity inflation, as that would hurt the economy. All they care about is AMZN and GOOGL hitting new all time highs. They’ve managed to funnel all liquidity into US equities up to now as commodities drop to 50 year lows. What makes anyone think this time is different?
Pass me the vomit bucket please
Mine is in use, Patrick.
I don’t think this was orchestrated
Cant kill Oil if it is in demand….That market is supposed to be manipulated UP by the producers
But they are having a price war now..
If the economy runs hot oil does well…the real economy has not been doing well globally.
Commodities are just not a go to asset unless there is inflation.
There has been NO inflation of any kind ( in the official numbers) for a decade at least.
There can NEVER EVER be Inflation until all this debt clears ….Years and years
All IMO
The Saudi Royal family does whatever the US tells them to do. The US military and the weapons we supply them with are the only thing that stands between them and a lynch mob and they know it.
Fact is, if you know historic inflation was about to be unleashed, you would want it commencing from the absolute lower starting point possible. And that is exactly what they have gotten.
That makes sense. I do think insane inflation will arise from this…
Lets keep it real simple.
Ever since 1971, its been about leveraging up. Hence the debt build up. I call that INFLATION. Saville does too. Anyone who wants to comprehend the monetary side of the planet has to see it that way. Synonymous with currency debasement. (How it manifests is a separate matter. And that’s where the confusion comes from.)
That leveraging process, given competitive import pressures from Asian Tigers, then BRICs, has led to Financialization and the atrophying of Main St. (Inflation flowed to assets not consumer stuff.)
That cycle has now ended. Trump started it with Tariffs. C-19 is doing the rest. It was primed either way. Deleveraging is now the process from here. Deleveraging = deflation. Bankuptcies and writedowns. The central banks will fight it. The more they do that … think quick sand. Or the ouroboros. Not gonna work.
And Fully is right …. it will take years. And there will be scars. Lots of them.