Attempting to Catch a Falling Knife….
Plunger said I should have called my post last Friday, “Brave and Reckless” instead of “Brave and Smart”. He was right, and I may be doing the same thing again. Never learn I guess…
I liked my buy last Friday because it was at support. I sold Monday, after unfortunately getting gapped down on, and just rebought about 15 mins before the close Thursday.
I found some great 2x ETF’s that I bought:
DDM 2x Dow
UWM 2x Russell
QLD 2x Nasdaq
I’m doing 2x’ers where I can now. 3x’ers are killers. Just look at JNUG yesterday. It got destroyed losing over 61% in a single day. The volatily of a 3xer just causes way too much decay as well, destroying the price in sideways markets.
My reasoning on my buy: I see a lot more major supports being hit. Also, How do you get more blood in the streets than we saw on Thursday? Buy when there’s blood in the streets…. And lastly: it never goes down to the obvious spot. It’s always going to turn before that and leave people behind….
If the supports I’m looking at break again, I’ll sell tomorrow.
My 2x China short did well today. I recommend this:
FXP
I think the world will be moving a lot of manufacturing out of China slowly for a while, especially the USA, and I think this will benefit the USA economy and really hurt China going forward. The USA is bringing a lot of manufacturing back….
I got 2 words;
India
lol that’s not two words
India
Ever listen to Raoul Pal?
When the dust settles I see what you see but more diverse 4 separate supply chains NA EU Asia & India? But I don’t know jack so DYODD….I’m waiting for 18n change if that breaks 4 if there is anything left as we know it Yikes. Just can’t see this holding unless Trump calls an emergency and delays the election under a National emergency. Delays the election it’s an unknown that may play out. Nobody is talking about yet…….! Dictator Trump is a real probability. Way too many unknowns IMO Parabolic Chuck.
Do you think Trump could cancel the election? I think it’s 50:50 at the moment. The unknown variables are exponential IMO?
Do you own due diligence folks this is 18 29 39 81 87 00 08 & 16 all at once IMO.
Thanks Red. I could see that! Diversity will be key going forward.
These are truly unprecedented times. This is a global problem, with global shutdowns hitting every sector of society for months. The financial cost is unfathomable. A lot of very big dominoes look likely to come crashing down. Total wipeout I’m afraid. How will governments react ? It’s not going to be pretty.
Too soon IMHO. Could get hurt very badly if you’re wrong.
You can do it Chuck!!!! Go Chuck Go!!!!
There’s a lot about your Patrick I really like. Lol. Thanks for being such a great contributor lately. I really enjoy your posts.
Thanks guys. Buy at support and sell if it breaks never hurts too bad. (Except when the vicious gap happens)
Hopefully catching this falling knife won’t cut too bad! 🙂
My system continues to call for stairsteps lower.
My LT relative trend for SPY is falling at -2.2. (Well out of buy zone above -1)
Meaning ANY upturn is likely to be countertrend, for weeks.
Fine, those can still be winners.
But my IT relative trend is at at -2.7 and falling.
Together, that combo is a no go here.
And backtesting tells me quite consistently that either monthly relative trend must turn up (April, maybe),
or weekly relatively relative trend must turn up and rise above -1.5.
That suggests two weeks at a minimum before a lasting bottom.
Chartology may suggest otherwise.
But I’m not going to get out in front of this one.
EW ABC for 4, argues we break Dec 18 lows at 2300. So 2100 is a rough target.
Thank you Pedro. I’m gonna hold till these lines break. If they do i’ll probably buy around that area. Hopefully don’t get gapped on!