Loading ...Slowly Sinking In
Not sure where to start this piece, but here goes… I try to keep my posts/articles balanced, but I’m struggling a bit here. What I mean is that I’m struggling not to sound alarmist. How about I start with some basic facts (as they are currently understood):
- Seasonal flu in USA/Europe (for example) affects between about 5 and 20% of the population each year (depending on just how bad a ‘flu season’ it is).
- Seasonal flu has a mortality rate around 0.1 %
- Covid-19 is currently modelled to have an ‘attack rate’ of between 60 and 80%
- Covid-19 has a mortality rate of 3.4% according to current WHO figures, although their Director General has argued that it’s higher
Those 4 statements alone are at the heart of what’s troubling me. In the UK seasonal flu kills (depending on where you get your numbers from) 10 to 20 thousand people each year. If Covid-19 affects (let’s assume the forecast is too high), 30% of the population (around 20 million people) with 30 times as many fatalities, that gives us over 600, 000 fatalities. Let’s half that number and call it 300, 000 fatalities, heck, lets half it again and call it 150, 000 fatalities – that’s still 7 or 8 times as many as the worst flu season.
Apart from the personal tragedy of all this loss of life – our critical care facilities would be overwhelmed. We’re told after every bad flu season that the system was ‘only just’ able to cope, with ambulances containing patients having to wait hours outside the hospital because there are no beds.
More facts – there are no known anti viral drugs which can touch this, there is nothing licensed or approved for use at all, and we don’t expect anything for at least a year.
Short of a complete global shutdown for 2 to 3 months, with everyone staying at home for that entire period, this thing will just spread. School/university closures and social distancing only has a limited effect.
All of which makes me think – what happened in China ? What’s happening there now ? Did they lie ? On one day last month, they ‘changed the way they report the numbers’…
But since then it’s apparently gone away, and everyone can get back to work. Really ? What am I missing in all of this ?
All I know for sure, right now, is that if the epidemiologists in Italy, Germany, UK, USA are right (I really hope not), then society across the world is about to face a test it really isn’t ready for. The UK just slashed interest rates to 0.25%, the US is likely to be into negative territory this year. The financial fallout is hard to quantify. You can say goodbye to the airline and travel industry, hospitality, hotels, bars, cafes, restaurants, sports clubs – all wiped out with near zero trade for months. Supply chains, manufacturing, production all gone.
So there you have it. Is China right ? Can it be halted that efficiently ? Can we all look forward to normality by May/June ?
If I could give back all my gold/silver/PM investments to stop this, I would, in a heartbeat. If things escalate and PM’s explode (which they very well might), I won’t be gleefully posting about it. Tracking the reaction in world markets is fair enough, but there is no pleasure when there is such sadness around the world. Maybe one day, some good will emerge from this crisis – I live in hope.
Northstar
very scary right now
I too am feeling it…like every one
I keep getting back to China and South Korea though
In provinces other than Hubei the John’s Hopkins site shows .6 % “Raw” kill rate
That means .6% of those who were confirmed died . and there are of course cases which were not in the hospital and not discovered
Later they will do random tests of populations to see how many had it cia blood sampes and antibodies and that will likely drive the number lower.
South Korea also has a similar rate
Of course there are places with 3 to 4% …but these are earlier in the counting process and the most severe cases are obviously counted first
Remember what the epidemiologists are saying ….the early numbers are ALWAYS skewed higher.
But of course there will be sadness and fear and economic disruptions …and no matter the real rate this is very real.
I’m not a health professional, but from a normal person’s point of view, I think the fear that exists on a global scale right now is overblown. This virus spreads more easily than the standard flu, and has a higher mortality rate, but in truth it is only the immune compromised that run a high risk of death. The WHO has stated the mortality rate is 3.4%, but that doesn’t take into account all the people that have caught it, had only mild symptoms – assumed it was a cold, and never reported it. Bottom line is that as long as you are fairly healthy (in better health than 96.6% of other people) you should come through this just fine. Added on to that, this is a virus just the same as the flu virus, that does much better in colder weather. There is no reason why it will not scale back significantly later this spring and into summer. Okay, that’s on a personal level.
What does scare me however is the global fear of COVID-19. Cancellations of events, public gatherings, etc. etc. If we are not rational about this, the fear behind this virus could send us into a serious global recession or even a depression. As FDR said, “All we have to fear is fear itself.” If we look at it rationally and not overreact in a state of emotional panic, things will be alright.
I agree Ken. The governments around the world are well aware of the financial implications of shutting an entire country down, and yet they’re doing it. We don’t do it for flu. That must mean something.
I think the root of the problem is the media hype. They want to capitalize on the fear. The people buy into it and the government responds to the people. If we stay rational, things will be fine.
I work in emergency planning with military/local government/emergency responders Ken. I can 100% promise you that ‘media hype’ is never, ever a factor. It is totally ignored. We’re professionals who are trained to disregard anything that isn’t ‘evidence-based’.
The biggest contributing factor to the fear IMHO is that in this day and age we can watch in real time as the numbers go up.
Yep… everything is faster… exponential curves everywhere you look… population… information… money printing… it amplifies greed cycles (ie to da moon)… and amplifies fear cycles (this is the end of the world)… ouff… that is throwing a wrench in my constant efforts to manage my emotions. But I’ll take some fear in exchange or complacency any day of the weak.. if it meant it could help the health of my kids.. family and friends. A healthy dose of fear is a good sign of survival instinct.
I can imagine the Virus Channel with a ticker on the bottom scrolling by with the numbers for each strain going up up up.
People would watch all day !
Thanks Northstar. You are insightful and smart. I look forward to everything you write except this. Yikes!
World population chart is an interesting chart it’s parabolic after about 1980.
Parabolic doesn’t usually end well.
Thank for your post NS. People may want to hear what Michael Osterholm has to say on the Joe Rogan show. He says what you just stated. 15X more deadly than flu and other unsettling facts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book “Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs” for more info. https://amzn.to/2IAzeLe
Interesting video thanks for posting Aurium.
Every dog has his day.
“The everything bubble” caused by humans, maybe it is everything including the human population we managed to “outsmart” Mother Nature for the last hundred years or so with the help of penicillin and modern medicine and the like. Maybe the pendulum is starting to swing. Certainly plenty of denial looking at the phases of a bubble Paradigm curve might tend to sober even the most optimistic. Parabolic is Parabolic and a reversion to the Mean would be catastrophic in human terms. Are we witnessing ATH human population or “can we kick this can down the road” like with everything else?
The west is in for a terrible ordeal. We watched China shut down borders, quarantine 760 million people, and send huge lorries 5 abreast to spray disinfectant on the city streets. We watched China built new hospitals in record time just to care for the sick and dying.
This we saw and did nothing to prepare for a global outbreak, wasting months of prep time. The virus found a toehold in our cities and still we slept.
Case. Case. Case. Cluster. Cluster. Boom! Korea, Iran, then Italy.
Finally the west begins to take notice.
The US CDC had months to alert health care providers, inform the public, and distribute equipment and test kits. Instead they ignored the danger. I feel especially for my American brethren. Washington state will be the next Italy – after that any number of cities or states where the virus has been spreading unchecked for weeks. The health care providers had no test kits, and when at last they did get some, for the sake of saving a buck they are rationed!
In a few weeks I fear America will shut down. The overrun hospitals will turn away many thousands. A disaster is unfolding.
The stock market, gold and silver…? We are about to find out what is really important.
Prepare. Learn how to protect yourself. Care for each other. One day this too shall pass.