Swine Flu Pandemic of 2009
This is Interesting
I really don’t Remember much about this “pandemic” ( Do YOU ?) so I though I would review it
First …from a market Perspective it was the exact opposite.
The market had just experienced the GFC and was hitting bottom when this news hit.
It went straight UP through the whole episode.
Straight UP !
This thing was predicted to affect 40% of the world’s population and kill millions. Some were saying it was the same virus that killed 50 million to 200 million in 1918
….The WHO called it a “Pandemic” and said Nothing could be done to prevent mass spread….They STOPPED COUNTING CASES ! Let that Sink In ! and The Dow Rallied the whole time !
By the time that Pandemic was declared Over in 2010 the Dow had rallied about 100% and it continued that rally up to the present .
Ha…so the rally started with a Pandemic and is about to END with a Pandemic ?
Is that Amazing ?
……………………
Before we begin lets acknowledge that although a Corona Virus is not the same as an Influenza Virus
There are many similarities in the way they are transmitted and in the symptoms…so it does serve well to review this most recent “pandemic” to see what we can see these 10 years later and perhaps apply the principles learned from that experience….Just the Facts Mam
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
Here are the bullet points I take from the story the Story .
1…Initially called an “outbreak”, widespread H1N1 infection was first recognized in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, with evidence that the virus had been present for months before it was officially called an “epidemic”. The Mexican government closed most of Mexico City’s public and private facilities in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus; however, it continued to spread globally, and clinics in some areas were overwhelmed by infected people. The new virus was first isolated in late April by American and Canadian laboratories from samples taken from people with flu in Mexico, Southern California and Texas. Soon the earliest known human case was traced to a case from 9 March in a 5-year-old boy in La Gloria, Mexico, a rural town in Veracruz. In late April the World Health Organization (WHO) declared its first ever “public health emergency of international concern,” or PHEIC, and in June, the WHO and the U.S. CDC stopped counting cases and declared the outbreak a pandemic.
2…The pandemic began to taper off in November 2009,[20] and by May 2010, the number of cases was in steep decline.[21][22][23][24] On 10 August 2010, the Director-General of the WHO, Margaret Chan, announced the end of the H1N1 pandemic,
3….. By 2012, research showed that as many as 579,000 people could have been killed by the disease, as only those fatalities confirmed by laboratory testing were included in the original number, and meant that many of those without access to health facilities went uncounted. The majority of these deaths occurred in Africa and Southeast Asia. Experts, including the WHO, have agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, much higher than the initial death toll.
4…By 19 November 2009, doses of vaccine had been administered in over 16 countries. A 2009 review by the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) concluded that the 2009 H1N1 vaccine has a safety profile similar to that of seasonal vaccine. In 2011, a study from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network estimated the overall effectiveness of all pandemic H1N1 vaccines at 56%. A CDC study released 28 January 2013, estimated that the Pandemic H1N1 vaccine saved roughly 300 lives and prevented about 1 million illnesses in the US
5…On 7 May 2009, the WHO stated that containment was not feasible and that countries should focus on mitigating the effect of the virus. They did not recommend closing borders or restricting travel.[100] On 26 April 2009, the Chinese government announced that visitors returning from flu-affected areas who experienced flu-like symptoms within two weeks would be quarantined. U.S. airlines had made no major changes as of the beginning of June 2009, but continued standing practices which include looking for passengers with symptoms of flu, measles or other infections, and relying on in-flight air filters to ensure that aircraft were sanitised
6…Schools
U.S. government officials were especially concerned about schools because the H1N1 flu virus appears to disproportionately affect young and school-age people, between six months and 24 years of age.[105] The H1N1 outbreak led to numerous precautionary school closures in some areas. Rather than closing schools, the CDC recommended that students and school workers with flu symptoms should stay home for either seven days total, or until 24 hours after symptoms subsided, whichever was longer.[106] The CDC also recommended that colleges should consider suspending fall 2009 classes if the virus began to cause severe illness in a significantly larger share of students than the previous spring. They also urged schools to suspend rules, such as penalties for late papers or missed classes or requirements for a doctor’s note, to enforce “self-isolation” and prevent students from venturing out while ill;[107] schools were advised to set aside a room for people developing flu-like symptoms while they waited to go home and to have ill students or staff and those caring for them use face masks.[108]
7…Workplace
Fearing a worst-case scenario, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) developed updated guidance[112] and a video for employers to use as they developed plans to respond to the H1N1 outbreak. The guidance suggested that employers consider and communicate their objectives, such as reducing transmission among staff, protecting people who are at increased risk of influenza-related complications from becoming infected, maintaining business operations, and minimising adverse effects on other entities in their supply chains.The CDC estimated that as much as 40% of the workforce might be unable to work at the peak of the pandemic due to the need for many healthy adults to stay home and care for an ill family member, and advised that individuals should have steps in place should a workplace close down or a situation arise that requires working from home.[114] The CDC further advised that persons in the workplace should stay home sick for seven days after getting the flu, or 24 hours after symptoms end, whichever is longer.
8…Data reporting and accuracy
See also: GISAID, National Influenza Centers, Disease surveillance, and Clinical surveillance
Influenza surveillance information “answers the questions of where, when, and what influenza viruses are circulating. Sharing of such information is especially crucial during an emergent pandemic as in April 2009, when the genetic sequences of the initial viruses were rapidly and openly shared via the GISAID Initiative within days of identification,[160] playing a key role in facilitating an early response to the evolving pandemic.[161][162][163] Surveillance is used to determine if influenza activity is increasing or decreasing, but cannot be used to ascertain how many people have become ill with influenza”.[164] For example, as of late June 2009, influenza surveillance information showed the U.S. had nearly 28,000 laboratory-confirmed cases including 3,065 hospitalisations and 127 deaths; but mathematical modelling showed an estimated 1 million Americans currently had the 2009 pandemic flu, according to Lyn Finelli, a flu surveillance official with the CDC.[165] Estimating deaths from influenza is also a complicated process. In 2005, influenza only appeared on the death certificates of 1,812 people in the US. The average annual US death toll from flu is, however, estimated to be 36,000.[166] The CDC explains:[167] “[I]nfluenza is infrequently listed on death certificates of people who die from flu-related complications” and hence, “Only counting deaths where influenza was included on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact”.
Influenza surveillance information on the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic is available, but almost no studies attempted to estimate the total number of deaths attributable to H1N1 flu. Two studies were carried out by the CDC; the later of them estimated that between 7,070 and 13,930 deaths were attributable to H1N1 flu from April to 14 November 2009.[168] During the same period, 1642 deaths were officially confirmed as caused by H1N1 flu.[169][170] The WHO state that total mortality (including deaths unconfirmed or unreported) from H1N1 flu is “unquestionably higher” than their own confirmed death statistics.[171]
The initial outbreak received a week of near-constant media attention. Epidemiologists cautioned that the number of cases reported in the early days of an outbreak can be very inaccurate and deceptive, due to several causes, among them selection bias, media bias and incorrect reporting by governments. Inaccuracies could also be caused by authorities in different countries looking at differing population groups. Furthermore, countries with poor health care systems and older laboratory facilities may take longer to identify or report cases.[172] “[E]ven in developed countries the [numbers of flu deaths] are uncertain, because medical authorities don’t usually verify who actually died of influenza and who died of a flu-like illness”.[173] Joseph S. Bresee (the CDC flu division’s epidemiology chief) and Michael Osterholm (director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy) have pointed out that millions of people have had H1N1 flu, usually in a mild form, so the numbers of laboratory-confirmed cases were actually meaningless, and in July 2009, the WHO stopped keeping count of individual cases and focused more on major outbreaks.[174]
9…FOLLOW UP
CDC estimates that between 43 million and 89 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April 2009 and 10 April 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 61 million people infected with 2009 H1N1.
CDC estimates that between about 195,000 and 403,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations occurred between April 2009 and 10 April 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 274,000 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations.
CDC estimates that between about 8,870 and 18,300 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April 2009 and 10 April 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 12,470 2009 H1N1-related deaths.[176][177][178]
10…Comparisons to other pandemics and epidemics
Annual influenza epidemics are estimated to affect 5–15% of the global population. Although most cases are mild, these epidemics still cause severe illness in 3–5 million people and 290,000–650,000 deaths worldwide.[183] On average 41,400 people die of influenza-related illnesses each year in the United States, based on data collected between 1979 and 2001.[184] In industrialised countries, severe illness and deaths occur mainly in the high-risk populations of infants, the elderly and chronically ill patients,[183] although the H1N1 flu outbreak (like the 1918 Spanish flu) differs in its tendency to affect younger, healthier people.[185]
In addition to these annual epidemics, Influenza A virus strains caused three global pandemics during the 20th century: the Spanish flu in 1918, Asian flu in 1957, and Hong Kong flu in 1968–69. These virus strains had undergone major genetic changes for which the population did not possess significant immunity.[186] Recent genetic analysis has revealed that three-quarters, or six out of the eight genetic segments, of the 2009 flu pandemic strain arose from the North American swine flu strains circulating since 1998, when a new strain was first identified on a factory farm in North Carolina, and which was the first-ever reported triple-hybrid flu virus.[187]
The 1918 flu epidemic began with a wave of mild cases in the spring, followed by more deadly waves in the autumn, eventually killing hundreds of thousands in the United States and 50–100 million worldwide.[188] The great majority of deaths in the 1918 flu pandemic were the result of secondary bacterial pneumonia. The influenza virus damaged the lining of the bronchial tubes and lungs of victims, allowing common bacteria from the nose and throat to infect their lungs. Subsequent pandemics have had many fewer fatalities due to the development of antibiotic medicines which can treat pneumonia.
11….FOLLOW UP
June 2012, a model based study was published finding that the number of deaths related to the H1N1 influenza may have been fifteen times higher than the reported laboratory confirmed deaths. According to their findings, 80% of the respiratory and cardiovascular deaths were in people younger than 65 years and 51% occurred in southeast Asia and Africa. The researchers believe that a disproportionate number of pandemic deaths might have occurred in these regions and that their research suggests that efforts to prevent future influenza pandemics needs to effectively target these regions.[216]
A WHO supported 2013 study estimated that the 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ~10-fold higher than the World Health Organization’s laboratory-confirmed mortality count (18.631). Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 years of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 months of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 years of age. The burden varied greatly among countries. There was an almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 years of age.[217
One thing for sure…Although this 2009 Pandemic is all but forgotten and erased from almost everybody’s minds
The present “Epidemic” will NOT be so soon forgotten.
There is much more hype and panic with this one. Not sure why…unless its just that we have such instantaneous and ubiquitous access to “information and “disinformation now with our phones 24/7.
PS…Swine Flu killed Kids ! This thing we have now does NOT ! Thats good news right ?
A Key Take away for me
Epidemiologists cautioned that the number of cases reported in the early days of an outbreak can be very inaccurate and deceptive, due to several causes, among them selection bias, media bias and incorrect reporting by governments. Inaccuracies could also be caused by authorities in different countries looking at differing population groups. Furthermore, countries with poor health care systems and older laboratory facilities may take longer to identify or report cases.
One More:
EARLY ESTIMATES OF SWINE FLU EPIDEMIC FROM 2009
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/may/12/swine-flu-report-pandemic-predicted
Great investigative work Fully!
Thanks Bud appreciate it .
Swine flu was pretty serious. My daughter got it at the age of four, poor girl also had strep at the same time. The first night she fell ill was the longest night of my life. I meticulously kept a fever log and was at the ready with ibuprofen and acetaminophen. I remember missing a dose by a few minutes and her fever shot up. The next day she was up and running around, eating etc. The hospital called 2-3x a day to check on her and couldn’t believe what I was describing. Looking back I had no idea how serious it was. To put all this in context a little girl was taken by swine flu in our neighborhood and I later found out many children were. Breaks my heart to this day.