Loading ...Gold in US Equity sell-offs
2001 dot com crash.. well gold didn’t sneeze and loved it all!
In 2008… was all fine and dandy… until a point during the easing cycle were every thing was for sell…
This is what we got to be on the lookout… there could be a breaking point where a “deflation bust” could even have negative impacts on gold…
Which scenario will happen now? Anybody got some theories?
Edit: adding today’s…. only 17% gains since beginning of easing cycle…
I remember reading some saying 2001, there was no sell offs as nobody was holding gold to sell… while in 2008… gold was present and somewhat popular because of the 2001-2008 run-up. If this is true.. then where does gold sit now within the market? Not sure anybody has any gold except us gold bugs…
Gold will hold up and even rise
PM Stocks and Silver will drop with stocks at least at first.
My take
This feels more like 2000 than 2008 to me. USD at a secular peak, yen at secular low, commodities at secular low.
The Fed is going to flood the system with liquidity via QE and god knows what else. When the impact of the coronavirus become quantifiable (which should be no later than May/June IMO) commodities should absolutely rip higher. It’s quite possible the Dow has already topped vs commodities. We will only know in hindsight I suppose. There are going to be massive shortages in industrial commodities and agriculture products very soon.
That being said, I thought the $CRB and GCC bottomed last August. But the dollar hadn’t really rolled over yet. If the USD top is in, than I have little doubt that we probably saw the low in the $CRB and GCC last week.
All of this fits in very well with my central expectation. Something bad for gold is likely to unfold taking us to the mid-cycle low in late 2023/early 2024, so we should have at least another 3 years trending upwards.