Loading ...Elephant and Black Swan in Same Room
While it appears China might have things under control, John Hopkins CSSE has reported 17400 cases of Coronavirus as of today OUTSIDE China. Only 16 days ago on 18th Feb it was just 1000 reported cases:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
The average daily increase over this period is 19.7%.
For some entertainment, if you do a back of envelope extrapolation over the next 2 months assuming a more conservative trajectory of just 15% increase per day:
- +70K ppl could be affected by middle of this month
- +600K ppl could be affected by end of this month
- +5M ppl could be affected by middle of April
- +40M ppl could be affected by end of April
- +350M ppl could be affected by middle of May
- You can do the math for end of May …
If this scenario plays out, and even just a small percentage too if estimates are way off, global supply chains will be broken everywhere. Also there will be a very long winter to restart as we are all interconnected and daisy-chained. I am seeing signs of this in Australia already where yards that used to be full of shipping containers are empty and goods cannot be supplied or manufactured because simple things that we take for granted like plastic supplies from China is unavailable, etc.
There won’t be too many places to park money in forex, energy or base metals – only place that will still make sense is holding gold. And the Coronavirus chart could be leading indicator for gold.
Check out table below – I think there may be an elephant in the room with a black swan perched on top.
| Day | Reported Cases – Outside China | % Increase from previous day |
| 18-Feb-20 | 1,000 | |
| 19-Feb-20 | 1,100 | 10.0% |
| 20-Feb-20 | 1,200 | 9.1% |
| 21-Feb-20 | 1,400 | 16.7% |
| 22-Feb-20 | 1,700 | 21.4% |
| 23-Feb-20 | 2,000 | 17.6% |
| 24-Feb-20 | 2,400 | 20.0% |
| 25-Feb-20 | 2,800 | 16.7% |
| 26-Feb-20 | 3,300 | 17.9% |
| 27-Feb-20 | 4,300 | 30.3% |
| 28-Feb-20 | 5,300 | 23.3% |
| 29-Feb-20 | 6,800 | 28.3% |
| 1-Mar-20 | 8,500 | 25.0% |
| 2-Mar-20 | 10,300 | 21.2% |
| 3-Mar-20 | 12,700 | 23.3% |
| 4-Mar-20 | 14,900 | 17.3% |
| 5-Mar-20 | 17,400 | 16.8% (Actuals) |
| 6-Mar-20 | 20,010 | 15.0% (Estimates) |
| 7-Mar-20 | 23,012 | 15.0% |
| 8-Mar-20 | 26,463 | 15.0% |
| 9-Mar-20 | 30,433 | 15.0% |
| 10-Mar-20 | 34,998 | 15.0% |
| 11-Mar-20 | 40,247 | 15.0% |
| 12-Mar-20 | 46,284 | 15.0% |
| 13-Mar-20 | 53,227 | 15.0% |
| 14-Mar-20 | 61,211 | 15.0% |
| 15-Mar-20 | 70,393 | 15.0% |
| 16-Mar-20 | 80,952 | 15.0% |
| 17-Mar-20 | 93,094 | 15.0% |
| 18-Mar-20 | 107,059 | 15.0% |
| 19-Mar-20 | 123,117 | 15.0% |
| 20-Mar-20 | 141,585 | 15.0% |
| 21-Mar-20 | 162,823 | 15.0% |
| 22-Mar-20 | 187,246 | 15.0% |
| 23-Mar-20 | 215,333 | 15.0% |
| 24-Mar-20 | 247,633 | 15.0% |
| 25-Mar-20 | 284,778 | 15.0% |
| 26-Mar-20 | 327,494 | 15.0% |
| 27-Mar-20 | 376,619 | 15.0% |
| 28-Mar-20 | 433,111 | 15.0% |
| 29-Mar-20 | 498,078 | 15.0% |
| 30-Mar-20 | 572,790 | 15.0% |
| 31-Mar-20 | 658,708 | 15.0% |
| 1-Apr-20 | 757,514 | 15.0% |
| 2-Apr-20 | 871,142 | 15.0% |
| 3-Apr-20 | 1,001,813 | 15.0% |
| 4-Apr-20 | 1,152,085 | 15.0% |
| 5-Apr-20 | 1,324,898 | 15.0% |
| 6-Apr-20 | 1,523,632 | 15.0% |
| 7-Apr-20 | 1,752,177 | 15.0% |
| 8-Apr-20 | 2,015,004 | 15.0% |
| 9-Apr-20 | 2,317,254 | 15.0% |
| 10-Apr-20 | 2,664,842 | 15.0% |
| 11-Apr-20 | 3,064,569 | 15.0% |
| 12-Apr-20 | 3,524,254 | 15.0% |
| 13-Apr-20 | 4,052,892 | 15.0% |
| 14-Apr-20 | 4,660,826 | 15.0% |
| 15-Apr-20 | 5,359,950 | 15.0% |
| 16-Apr-20 | 6,163,942 | 15.0% |
| 17-Apr-20 | 7,088,533 | 15.0% |
| 18-Apr-20 | 8,151,813 | 15.0% |
| 19-Apr-20 | 9,374,585 | 15.0% |
| 20-Apr-20 | 10,780,773 | 15.0% |
| 21-Apr-20 | 12,397,889 | 15.0% |
| 22-Apr-20 | 14,257,572 | 15.0% |
| 23-Apr-20 | 16,396,208 | 15.0% |
| 24-Apr-20 | 18,855,639 | 15.0% |
| 25-Apr-20 | 21,683,985 | 15.0% |
| 26-Apr-20 | 24,936,583 | 15.0% |
| 27-Apr-20 | 28,677,071 | 15.0% |
| 28-Apr-20 | 32,978,631 | 15.0% |
| 29-Apr-20 | 37,925,426 | 15.0% |
| 30-Apr-20 | 43,614,240 | 15.0% |
| 1-May-20 | 50,156,376 | 15.0% |
| 2-May-20 | 57,679,832 | 15.0% |
| 3-May-20 | 66,331,807 | 15.0% |
| 4-May-20 | 76,281,578 | 15.0% |
| 5-May-20 | 87,723,815 | 15.0% |
| 6-May-20 | 100,882,387 | 15.0% |
| 7-May-20 | 116,014,745 | 15.0% |
| 8-May-20 | 133,416,957 | 15.0% |
| 9-May-20 | 153,429,501 | 15.0% |
| 10-May-20 | 176,443,926 | 15.0% |
| 11-May-20 | 202,910,514 | 15.0% |
| 12-May-20 | 233,347,092 | 15.0% |
| 13-May-20 | 268,349,155 | 15.0% |
| 14-May-20 | 308,601,529 | 15.0% |
| 15-May-20 | 354,891,758 | 15.0% |
| 16-May-20 | 408,125,522 | 15.0% |
| 17-May-20 | 469,344,350 | 15.0% |
| 18-May-20 | 539,746,002 | 15.0% |
| 19-May-20 | 620,707,903 | 15.0% |
| 20-May-20 | 713,814,088 | 15.0% |
| 21-May-20 | 820,886,201 | 15.0% |
| 22-May-20 | 944,019,132 | 15.0% |
| 23-May-20 | 1,085,622,001 | 15.0% |
| 24-May-20 | 1,248,465,302 | 15.0% |
| 25-May-20 | 1,435,735,097 | 15.0% |
| 26-May-20 | 1,651,095,361 | 15.0% |
| 27-May-20 | 1,898,759,666 | 15.0% |
| 28-May-20 | 2,183,573,615 | 15.0% |
| 29-May-20 | 2,511,109,658 | 15.0% |
| 30-May-20 | 2,887,776,106 | 15.0% |
| 31-May-20 | 3,320,942,522 | 15.0% |
Question #1 …what was daily China’s rate of increase at the start ?
I saw a similar extrapolation which estimated 200 million would be infected in China within 2 months
It’s 2 months now.
Question #2…Will the virus continue to spread at a high rate as the weather warms ?
With China they do have the political will and ability to mobilize and coordinate human resources on the largest scale quickly for the collective cause no questions asked. I am not sure whether the Rest of World have the same discipline or collective mindset and that would be key difference on containment levels.
As for weather that might make a difference but on a global scale I would imagine it would be swings and roundabouts as it depends where you are in the world.
Putting aside the obvious health issues, I think there is the separate issue of a broken or less than efficient global supply chain. Individuals, companies and levels of government go into various stages of lockdown whether they initiate it or a recipient. It’s like an engine running on 3 cylinders.
I mean how did we get from dining on bat soup to stock market jitters to short squeeze on toilet paper? Perception is reality still for most folks.
Yes well….stuff like you just posted here and the one i posted above do not help do they
Are You part of the hysteria problem or are you trying to be a rational part of the solution ?
Actually I find the hysteria surprising myself. But I am observing the charts objectively for what it is based on TA principle “the immediate past predicts the immediate future”. So unless trend changes and let’s hope so for the greater good it is what it is for now until it bends. And when you see this physically manifesting at various levels on the ground you then have to consider fundamental analysis coming into play too in confluence with charts.
YOU find the hysteria SURPRISING ?
You just “made up” a scenario …extrapolating from scant present data that by the end of May there will be over 3 million MORE cases.
Somebody believing this nonsense will read this and become very worried and run out and buy cases of toilet paper and masks and chlorox wipes and will show this to their friends and scare the shit out of them.
You don’t seem to get it.
Uninformed posts like this contribute to the hysteria. Are you a virologist ? An Epidemiologst ? A Statistician ?
Did you see the post above this one…Some uninformed irresponsible guy posted a similar view that by NOW there would be 3 million cases and rising exponentially…he posted this just over a month ago.
A lot of people thought he was absolutely right….thus the hysteria.
sheesh.
As for the TA principle ” The Immediate past Predicts the immediate future”
There is NO such TA principle that I have ever heard of ! because it it not true
Where did you get that ?
Yesterday the stock market went up 4% ..today it dropped 4%.
Edwards and Magee ?
Rambus ?
EW ?
Show me where you saw that principle ?
It’s in the same vein as momentum and trend following principles but let’s not get into semantics.
The point is and like looking at various indicators on a chart no one can predict the future. So the next best thing is we triangulate from various disparate and independent sources to form a view to work out how to best position for the right hand side of the chart where it is blank. And when new information comes along in the future that changes the narrative we re-triangulate,re-draw support, resistance and trendlines and reposition accordingly.