Has The Penny Dropped Already ?
Just taking stock of where we are. Following todays 50bps cut, the Dow dropped, the Dollar tanked and PM’s launched back inside the bullish patterns I’ve been charting. Was that plunge an ‘anomaly’ ? I’ve not seen anything quite like it. Just as we were about to cross that $31 threshold on GDX, the ground opened up and swallowed us.
So here we are, just a few days later, close to where we started, and I’m wondering…is that the point of recognition ? I wasn’t expecting to come quite like that, but will that prove to be the defining moment for this PM bull. Have investors been shocked out of their complacency and forced to consider a ‘safety hedge’. If the look seriously at GDX/GDXJ/HUI and their ratios to the SPX/DJIA even a chimpanzee could figure out the imbalance and the prospect of a reversion to the mean. If just a small percentage of the wealth that was pulled out of stock markets in the last few days finds its way into PM stocks, well, you can imagine.
Now take a look at the GDX chart below. IF we finally break that $31 line (and we’re already breaking out of the bull flag), then we can expect to see stocks out-performing the metal, and silver out-performing gold as the GSR reverses. One day at a time though. Here are the charts…
Greatest fake out… to inaugurate the greatest breakout ever. Makes total sense to me.
I’ve never seen anything like it. I was so convinced about the fundamentals that I never really considered selling any positions. Shat my pants though…
I can see that if you mostly long gold miners. But I have been mostly long silver miners, which really looked terrible technically in relative and absolute terms. And there is a camp amongs gold bugs (FOFOA for example) that think physical gold is going to win out over everything in the the endgame. For all I know, and based on the terrible track record of $hui:$gold to date, I have no reason to argue with him yet. When $hui:$gold takes out its 2016 high and thus makes a higher high, it will be the first instance of such action in the last 25 years.
I personally do not put that much weight on shorter time frame cups. It’s quite possible that GDX could consolidate around this level or a bit lower for another month or two. Price has been basically been consolidating between $25 and $30 for coming up on 9 months now. Based on similar consolidations in the past, I don’t think it will make it past 10 months before breaking out.
Before silver stocks made their moon launch in 2010, they were trapped in a 10 month trading range. I anticipate something similar this time, except it will be both gold and silver miners participating.
You’re right – the shorter the time frame, the less you can rely on the cup/arc/bowl.
The volatility is crazy. What is your line in the sand for GDX, that it will begin moving higher to the 40 range. A weekly close above 31? Of course, this assumes there are no more massive shakeouts.
Crazy – yes, a weekly close above 31 would do it.