Goldtent TA Paradise

Yield curve widens across all Maturities 2,5,10,30 years

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   March 1, 2020 - 8:19 am at 8:19 am

   Wow Thanks Sir Yield Curve

   Let me clarify this for myself and others who may struggle with Yields and Bond prices

   So…last week even though for instance the Ten Year Bond made a new all time high

   which translates to an all time 10 year low in Yields

   The 2 Year bond yield dropped even more percent wise.

   This the difference between the 10 year yield and the 2 year yield Increased

   This of course does not imply that yields themselves are rising

   Only that the longer term yields comparatively are higher now than they were vs the shorter term yields .

   Questions

   1…Does this reduce the chances of Negative yields ? ( my sense is no )

   So we could have negative yields AND a steepening curve ?

   2…Of course widening implies a return to more normal yields ?

   Longer term bonds SHOULD have higher yields

   3….There is still a lag of a couple years where this phenomena translates to higher PM prices ?

   4…are 2 year yields now negative ?

   Thanks Sir Yield

   I Yield to you

   🙂

   • Patrick says:

     March 1, 2020 - 8:28 am at 8:28 am

     Thanks Fully… same questions here… how dare Bikoo say “watch what happens next?”… we are sheep that need guidance… 😉

   • Bikoo99 says:

     March 1, 2020 - 9:58 am at 9:58 am

     1) correct steepening will be the trend with this BO from a massive base bowl. Chartology of yield curve projects widening going forward.
     2) Yes steepening means longerterm will have higher yield across all maturities, 10-2,30-2,30-5, 10-Tbill,30-Tbills, etc.
     3) Absolutely correct there will be lag time from months to a year for PM miner to take advantage of widening. You can do your study what happend at the bottom of massive crash of 2008-2009 when steepening began and how long it took for SGR to start massive rise. Just during that time window.
     4) 10yr to 2yr just pushed to steepening.
     Most financial managers watch Yield curves.

2. Patrick says:

   March 1, 2020 - 8:37 am at 8:37 am

   My guess is inflation being priced in… as cureent low rates will cause need for long term rates to go up. The fed can only compress the short end of the curve… unless they do QE?!?!

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     March 1, 2020 - 9:32 am at 9:32 am

     Inflation is NOT the deal here yet

     We have the lowest bond yields in history

     with NO sign of any reversal patterns.

     Commodities are in a death spiral

     The debt bubble is bursting and will take a long time…no matter if there are short small salvoes of interest rate drops…..from a toothless monster

     Wait to see Plungers PBC work this evening.

     I think he has it.

     Bottom line there can be NO inflation until the debt is cleared ….years and years of deflationary forces are afoot

     Japan has been printing like a maniac for 20 years and are dying (literally) for some inflation

     and they still have none

   • Bikoo99 says:

     March 1, 2020 - 10:01 am at 10:01 am

     I have not shared the Real price of gold ( Gold to CRB ratio). It is all time high and moving higher to blue sky. The ratio reflects deflation rather inflation.

     • Patrick says:

       March 1, 2020 - 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm

       Again… For me sake guys.. can we agree what inflation is? Or I’ll assume I’m wrong and will use “cost of living”. It makes a big difference… as my studies revolve around CPI (cost of living) rate impacts on silver and gold… not inflation (stage 2 ascent) or deflation (stage 4 decline) of commodity prices! If I’m confused.. other might be too… or maybe not… gulp ;(