Loading ...Tough Love
For anyone who can’t get over the action in PM miners last week, and can’t put it into context it’s a case of a) getting out of this sector permanently or b) grow a pair
I say that because this will happen again, more than once – just look at what it took to get from 35 to 650 on the HUI Index during the last PM bull market. I’ve said repeatedly that I don’t think I can time things well enough to repeatedly exit and re-enter. The ONLY drop I’m hoping to avoid is the fall into the 2034/24 mid-cycle low (look back at 2008). Other than that I’m just going to grit my teeth and ride this up from my entry point (which was around 140). Please look at this chart and inwardly digest those huge drops. Mentally prepare for them, and ignore them (if you believe, like I do, that we are in a long term. secular PM bull market). If you don’t believe that, you should avoid PMs because gold is going to $800 and silver is going to $5.
Sage Advice . Brutally Honest.That chart is great. I was there.
Now allow me to ask a brutally honest question for you NS
How did it feel to loose 30% of you PM Stock Portfolio value in 1 week ?
Was it…”No problem , I am in it for the long haul”…Or HOLLY SH!T …I just lost $XXX this week !” or somewhere in between. ?
And how should those who came in at higher prices than you did feel if they lost all their profits and more in ONE day ?
Some thoughts… if you are thinking “holy i lost $$$” … then you position sizing is too high. You need better risk/money management protocols. And indeed.. ling haul position is easier the closer you enter the bottom… when everybody thinks its never gonna get back up.. and you take a contrarian position. Late comers.. well they get slaughtered if they get greedy and dont ease into a larger position size.
PS HUI closed at 210 not 228 as your chart shows.
http://schrts.co/ikmtMRhD
Northstar I’m with you, in for the long haul. Buy some on the way down and sell some on the way up. I always try to have some trading cash on hand to day trade with.
Fully, You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’
When the dealin’s done
🙂 LOL
I like many here rode the whole 2000 Bull…including 2008 where after being up 500% all gains were wiped out and then some.
That was absolutely devestating..Happened so fast we were like deer in the headlights.
Couldn’t wouldn’t sell
The V bounce bailed us out though and then…DOWN she went again and to this day no recovery from that one.
Gotta be nimble…in and out IMHO….Pick 1 ETF and play it .
Takes 10 seconds to sell when things look dicey
Works for me.
It hasn’t been lost on me how good of an approach you have, especially after this week!
I take your point Fully, but history tells us you have to expect several 20, 30, or 40% corrections. Up until the final 16 year cycle top, all of these drops will be reversed to the upside with new highs. For me, its about having the right mental approach and not stressing about these ‘normal’ occurances. Unless long term support is broken, I’m staying long. Moving averages (and price distance from them) can be used, with other techniques to repeatedly exit and enter if that’s your thing. I do believe $1750+ would’ve been highly likely without the virus intervening. I would quite possibly have taken some profits at that point, but will have to wait for now.
Gold stocks only should be owned during the beginning of the bull market like currently. In previous bull market gold performed far better from 2004 on, especially after 2008.
Thanks NS, this chart just became the one to watch.