Goldtent TA Paradise

Take Off Pattern for Silver

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   February 26, 2020 - 5:59 pm at 5:59 pm

   Patrick…I see no reason for optimism for Silver what so ever for what its worth. None

   If it has not rallied significantly under these conditions then what will it take. ?

   • Karl says:

     February 26, 2020 - 6:45 pm at 6:45 pm

     “None” I believe is too strong.

     I have mixed feelings. I personally *like* silver much more than gold as a personal bias. I also see a nice curve in silver prices upwards beginning around, say, 2015-2016. I could make plenty of arguments why silver *might* go up.

     However, contrary to your 2nd point, I do not think these are conditions where silver prices would necessarily be expected to go up (even if it weren’t around the time of Comex options expirations and other possible anomalous activities.)

     If there is incipient panic mode and people want anything other than cash and the basic necessities, the tried and true is gold, and not so much silver necessarily, although people may go to silver to a lesser degree.

     In the current situation people are scared of deleveraging, of poor liquidity, of lowering profits, of economic contraction. A threat of a pandemic, whether it proves medically real everywhere, is already causing economic dislocations.

     Some (non-PM) companies may also be using the virus as an excuse to lower expectations if they have been aggressive in their accounting and presentations.

     People who are even vaguely aware of commodity markets will be concerned that copper prices and other commodity prices will continue to go down (as in the chart you recently posted) with a sudden fall in both economic activity and profitability. They may also be aware that silver, too, functions somewhat as an industrial commodity–it may not be yellow or reddish, but it’s a bit like a copper-gold chimera. If they have to buy a PM and they can’t get gold, they may go to silver. But if they have a choice, they’ll go to gold and ignore silver.

     Later when the prices are distorted with further manipulations — interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, things may change. For all I know the authorities may even fairly directly manipulate silver prices upwards in order to attempt to seduce people into thinking that “deflation” (which the authorities apparently especially dread) is not present or imminent.

     But the current situation I do not believe to be at all an ideal one for silver prices. A threat of both lessened economic activity and generalized lower profitability internationally along with deleveraging is not so so bad for gold at all but less clear-cut for silver. I’m surprised silver prices have held up as well as they have in fact.

     • Patrick says:

       February 26, 2020 - 7:02 pm at 7:02 pm

       Yep. Silver”s precious metal properties are keeping it a float. It’s also an inflation hedge… and is sniffing our increasing inflation… (as seen in the many charts I posted on this)

2. Patrick says:

   February 26, 2020 - 6:04 pm at 6:04 pm

   Patience. You have to take a look at the big picture. Didnt you see my monthly charts? SHEESH