Silver Ain’t No Safehaven
Never was , never will be.
Down near 4% today
Dow and Naz Down 3%
BUT…Bitcoin ain’t no safe haven either apparently Down 10%
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Only cash is safe, even physical gold down today!
Gold rallied 14/15 weeks from Nov low. That nearly matches the duration of the previous May – Aug. ’19 rally (14 – 15 weeks). Instead of being euphoric, we should have bought some put options yesterday.
Ah the voice of reason
Option expiration, V shape recovery into Friday. Nothing to see here except another drive by bankering. That is all.
I’m a firm believer in the Comex option expiration effect. Nevertheless I have to admire your confidence here. There is quite a bit going on.
Yep. My friend who deal a lot in options… looks alot at that max pain… not quite sure I still understand it all.. but that he can often ball park price action based it… probably amognst other metrics. As for safe haven… I’m not quite sure that exists. Silver reacts to inflation (cpi) and inflation (money supply) … soo judging by a one day event.. indeed I would think like Aurum… because the day before.. it moved with gold while the rest was red. LOTS and LOTS of noise on daily, but it does sell newspapers! So.. just wait for it.. hopefully the fed will suprise in march meeting with a cut.. if not.. silver and gold will pop because the carried over expectations of the march cuts will move to april’s meeting. The monthly chart are trending upwards for silver and gold. Patience. We keep doing higher lows… wall of worries every where!
Karl gave us the heads up…shoulda known
What I don’t get is that if this happens EVERY option expiry date….why does anybody hold options until expiry
Wouldn’t you think they would learn to sell a few days before ?
sheesh
I don’t understand either. I have hypotheses that I don’t want to bother people with. I will note that it is not 100% reliable and perhaps can go the opposite direction occasionally. Also, “Jesse”, a firm believer in the effect, whose reminders I rely on, has noted that it sometimes happens the day after the expiration.
As for this time, Jesse wryly commented,
“Speaking of which, the safe havens gold and silver were shamelessly hammered lower, particularly in the last hour, in honor of the Comex option expiration today for the precious metals. Isn’t strafing the lifeboats considered bad form among a civilized people?”
https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2020/02/stocks-and-precious-metals-charts_25.html
Options expiration manipulation may become a thing of the past. Au being a Tier 1 asset the CB’s IMO should be on the anti manipulation program unless;
1 they want to accumulate; or
2 they have to sell AU to pay FIAT denominated obligations
3 there is a run on certain FIAT’s
Au has been used in the past to fight deflation by depreciation of FIAT vs Au. So many unknown financial variations exist uncharted debt = uncharted risks in all assets IMO. Massive risk of hyper inflation & deflation. I’m in the camp that Pb is gonna be sound money. You can’t eat Pb but you can encourage someone to make you a sandwich.
Ag is neither of the above yet!